Torn Probability Made Simpler

One of the most misunderstood underlying mechanics in this game is the concept of probability paired with random-number-generated results.

Statements like, "If something has a 4% chance of occurring, and if I do it 100 times, it'll always happen 4 times" get players in trouble when they're trying to predict (or budget for) an outcome that has RNG/probability involved.

18 day old noob who read a happy jump guide: "I won't overdose on my happy jump because I've only taken 9 xanax and I just overdosed and Xanax has about a 2% overdose rate which is 1 and 50, so I have 41 more to go before I overdose again."

[image: i.imgur.com]

I suppose it's reasonable to see many players step into this pitfall, calculating probability is fairly complicated after all!.
*Insert hard mathematics here*
Nah, no one really gives a shit about the formulas, except the folks who do care about the formulas... but they already know [where to find] the formulas, ya'll just want the charts.


Here are a few examples with TV points Press Pass prototype quarter-SE-chance with 1 year's worth of TV points, 21 xanax (roughly a week's worth) with OD chance, and loot chance from participating in 100 loot raids with 100 players; all heavily probability-based for reference:

[image: i.imgur.com]
Andyman's "how the hell do I read this?" explanation:
If you use 3,650 TV points on the Press Pass job special, you have a 1.272% chance of receiving exactly 4 Prototype Machine results and a 10.566% chance of receiving exactly 12 Prototype Machine results. You also have a 60.074% chance to receive at least 9 Prototype Machine results.


[image: i.imgur.com]
Andyman's "how the hell do I read this?" explanation:
If we assume a 2% xanax overdose rate, then for every batch of 21 Xanax you take, you will have a 65.425% chance of not overdosing, a 28.039% chance of overdosing 1 time and a 0.067% chance to overdose four times.


[image: i.imgur.com]
Andyman's "how the hell do I read this?" explanation:
If you join and attack in 100 Tiny level IV loot raids with 99 other players attacking (a 4% chance at loot), you have a 19.733% chance of receiving exactly 3 loots and a 2.852% chance of receiving exactly 8 loots. You also have a 21.16% chance to receive at least 6 loots.

[image: i.imgur.com]

tl;dr - What many players fail to realize is that when you try to accurately predict (or budget) for an outcome that has RNG/probability involved, you shouldn't just take the % chance of it occurring and multiply by the times you are repeating it to get the outcome. You should run a few different scenarios and create a range of where you expect to land.

Hopefully you found this helpful!
- Andyman Load image: cool

tl;dr - Statistics is black magic and you probably don't understand it.

oh yeah, this definitely simplifies it for me

What was the probability of me just scrolling to the memes…

Trying out some of this black magic...

[image: media.discordapp.net]

Did I do it right? Load image: laughing

"If something has a 4% chance of occurring, and if I do it 100 times, it'll always happen 4 times"

Noobs when I tried explaining to them why HRG was a bad buy under the old stock system.

Don't you love Andyman's "How the hell do I read this?" Explanation?

Your title said "simpler"

I'm a simple man I see andyman post I rate thumbs up.

I dunno. My Torn probabilities look more like: "If (with my Law Firm special) I can see that the odds of busting someone out of jail are 76%, then I'll get them on the 7th try and look like an utter moron doing so, even though in reality the odds of it taking that many tries are just under 0.02%."

Repeatedly.

TL;DR Math is indeed math.

"Made Easier"



[image: en.meming.world]

I like that the midpoint of the distributions tend toward the centre as the number of inputs increases. Is that fluke or a side effect of the formula?

R+.

Hey Andyman, could I buy you dinner?

+R

"One of the most misunderstood underlying mechanics in this game is"... likely still misunderstood

Anyone that thinks that 4%, means 4 in every 100 is gonna happen everytime, Is still gonna think that after they've skimmed through and looked at the pretty graphs.

"I won't overdose on my happy jump because I've only taken 9 xanax and I just overdosed and Xanax has about a 2% overdose rate which is 1 and 50, so I have 41 more to go before I overdose again."

Anybody who thinks that .... normally I would tell them uninstall the game.

99,99975633492612%

"One of the most misunderstood underlying mechanics in this game is the concept of probability paired with random-number-generated results."

According to who? You?

If you don't understand probability, you are an idiot, period.