Lucky Points Winners | Conspiracy or not?

Going to rush through formalities since this'll be too long, draw your own conclusions.

If you're a subscriber/donator, you supposedly get entered into a random daily draw with all other current subscribers. Five (5) winners are selected, awarded 10,000 > 5,000 > 2,500 > 1,000 > 1,000 points. 

I think this is silly, since there are many subscribers, and if you wanted to keep the economy relatively stable and fair you'd probably do like ten (10) winners, 1,000 points each. Honestly, if there is a conspiracy here - I'm not even mad. The idea of giving out 19,500 points or $741 000 000 out a day is quite ridiculous. 

Now, before I show you my "analysis" let me make some things clear:

1. I'm not accusing Chedburn or the moderator team or anyone else of anything yet, my results are still rough.
2. The raw data came from DocWolf, credit goes to him for making it easier for me to collect.
3. It took me some time to collect everything and tabulate it, there's no guarantee I didn't make typing errors or accuracy faults. I was tired, I'm human.

Brief conclusions:

1. There is some on the surface somewhat sketchy things going on with how the points are awarded:
   1. Of the roughly 330 players named, between 12/04/24 and today 02/07/24 19 17 of the 'winners' no longer exist, or I could not find their accounts. (number corrected from 19 -> 17, a brief reading of the fedded archives revealed that at least two (2) of the accounts were likely deleted.)
   2. 60-70% of the winners were already in established/ well-known factions (I acknowledge here that this could just be because these players have been subscribed the longest, or were recruited after the win? Not sure, but if the draw is random, it's strange that known factions win it more - I'll provide a breakdown of this further on.).
   3. There were many cases where a player's profile said they had 100-1000 forum posts, but upon clicking the number, they only had 10-15 or no posts at all.
   4. 47 of the winners had been inactive on average for 250 days. The longest inactive player was 4912 days inactive (interestingly, the image DocWolf provided for 15/06/24 for player Kilo92 is no longer available - someone must fact check me on this). over 1400+ days (thank Hemicopter for correcting me on this).
   5. Six (6) instances of players winning twice, statistically this should be impossible. if there are 20,000 active subscribers, there is a 0.0006% of the same person winning twice in the course of three (3) months (I think).
   6. EscensioIncursus had 4 winners, Monarch had 11 (across all their faction & job bases), JFK had 5, natural selection had 6, Occultus had 3, 39th Street Killers had 3, the Brotherhood of War had 4...the list goes on.

1. Now, the claims above I'm 80% sure on, I'm not a math girlie though, so feel free to correct me when you view the messy raw document I've put together. The claims below I'm 40-50% sure on, and reserve the right to withdraw:
   1. Sometimes when I viewed a player's profile, they came online immediately or within the next minute. Perhaps a coincidence, but it almost seemed like a ticker that cycled whenever the profile was viewed.
   2. Players that were suspicious (low forum posts, no fac or job, very inactive) tended to be grouped together with other suspicious players. For example, I'd found trio's of 3hrs inactive, 3hrs inactive, 3hrs inactive in one section, and so on as if the cycle marked them as online.
   3. Found it very strange that I could not see points networth when looking at their stats (this should be implemented imo).

I'm sure lots of other conclusions can be drawn, but I'm bored and don't want to spend anymore time on this.

If anything, at least this serves as a post of interest clearing up any suspicions (or creating them therein?) Up to you (those smarter than I) to spend your time on this if you'd like.

Here's the raw post (excuse the messiness).

Lastly, I want to emphasise again: I do not sanction, endorse nor encourage any hate to anyone in the Torn staff team, nor accuse them of any ill intent. This post is solely to generate discussion, and perhaps reveal inconsistencies or inaccuracies in how the reward system randomly selects winners. 

souleth researching the conspiracy behind points draw:

[image: media.tenor.com]

me passing the time until it's my turn to win the points draw again (I've won once in 6 years):

[image: gifdb.com]

bogie telling chedburn about this thread:

[image: i.kym-cdn.com]

What in the.....go get a hobby

[image: editor-cdn.torn.com]

Hey! I started properly playing like 4 weeks ago, and I'm having fun - leave me be xD

Although, 413 mins is honestly quite bad - I need to take a break.

Honestly, this is pretty intriguing.  In terms of Torn conspiracies, I'm actually wanting to know more.  I want to dig and go down that rabbit hole.  Thanks for putting in this time and effort. 

From the looks of that mate......you'll pass my playing time in no time at all. Get a hobby!!!

What script do you see that on? I’d hate to see mine lol

741m a day is 270b a year, that isn't very much.

maybe you're right; to me it's a lot :) 

i just think there might be better ways of doing it? i don't know

So bizarre that people think the devs are capable of these complex conspiracies when they can't even get a simple chat system to work properly.

You're describing randomness, nothing more.

Is Torn not like any other game that the owners can do whatever they want? Genuinely asking.

This is great tin foil hat shit, and i applaud it. I love Torn-spiracy.

Chances are the staff runs interference everywhere all at once through bot farms and sanctioned alts. How would they know what the game needs if they aren't actually playing it? How can they gauge every level of play with a single account? 

Good shit tho, I'd love to see more about this. I wonder why their names aren't blasted on the news ticker like other big winners on the bookie and lotto...

Is a world wide online virtual casino with fake money held to the same standards as a real casino? Also genuinely asking.

This is the energy i'm looking for xD thank u good sir

i'm of the opinion rn that it's not a coordinated & competent effort to manipulate results, rather just a faulty number generator or something else. again, wouldn't blame ched for throwing in 2-3 fake accounts in there to prevent the points market being flooded constantly by donators

ive never won, definitely a conspiracy

It is real:

04:20:09 - 01/07/24 You won a daily subscriber draw and gained 2,500x points

Never won it before though, had started to think it was mythical...

Unless Ched is paying me off...

04:20:21 - 08/09/23 You won a daily subscriber draw and gained 10,000x points