Started by Minus_One [2138053] on in Questions & Answers.
Posts archived: 7 / 7 posts (100%) · the total is Torn's reply count + the opening post at the last fetch
Counted by TornLife from the archived posts.
I need someone to talk me off a metaphorical ledge here, am I just extremely unlucky or has Ched massacred my boy's RNG?
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For context, the above is my grenade box stats from the start of August of this year. 45% win rate may not seem bad, but at the number of boxes I've opened the likelihood of that happening has become incredibly low.
Wolfram Alpha puts the likelihood at 0.0026% or roughly 1 in 38,000 for 731 or fewer heads in 1626 coin flips.
Any other box openers seeing this?
as the french say..."le git d'e gud"
Considering how many people play this game, a 1 in 38k chance happening to you isn't super surprising. It's like winning the anti-lottery.
Are you meaning to ask how you haven't gotten closer to 50% despite having so many? Are we even certain the rate is a coin flip?
It could just as easily be 45% for HEGs and your data is the closest we have to true :)
Are you meaning to ask how you haven't gotten closer to 50% despite having so many? Are we even certain the rate is a coin flip?
So this is my historic grenade opening from Before the start of August 2025.
Sure looks like it should be 50/50 to me.
Interesting! :)
The larger sample size there would suggest that to be the case.
An adjustment to rates on box type items would certainly be possible, coding -wise. Though I doubt that would be employed regularly, outside of very niche circumstances. And 'penalties' for over use (a decay of some kind?) seems unlikely - though not completely outside the realm of possibility.
