I think you've misunderstood my comment. I'm not ignoring the independence of trials.
When you have many independent events (taking xanax, each with 2% OD rate), you also have many chances for an uncommon string of successes (ODs) to occur simply from randomness. The probability of such an uncommon string of ODs occurring increases as the total number of events increases not because the 2% OD rate is changing, but just because there are more opportunities for it to happen.
If you look up "at least once" probability you'll find examples similar to what I calculated.
I'm currently at 5 Xanax OD's in 13 days. I feel your pain. One more and I'll be right where you are. Over Halloween a couple of weeks ago I had 3 back to back, not only during Halloween but also during a 100k Chain. Absolute terrible luck.
17:12:30 - 25/10/25 You sent an event to Securop: You took some Xanax and downed a glass of water. A headache was followed by nausea and vomiting. You overdosed.
21:41:50 - 25/10/25 You were sent 40x Xanax from Securop with the message: week long insurance, red table, 40 xanax, 33.4m
22:29:13 - 27/10/25 You sent an event to Securop: You took some Xanax and downed a glass of water. A headache was followed by nausea and vomiting. You overdosed.
20:27:09 - 28/10/25 You were sent 40x Xanax from Securop with the message: Halloweek insurance, red table, 40 xanax, 33.4m
05:41:45 - 30/10/25 You sent an event to Securop: You took some Xanax and downed a glass of water. A headache was followed by nausea and vomiting. You overdosed.
11:19:36 - 30/10/25 You were sent 40x Xanax from Securop with the message: Halloweek Xanax insurance, red table
Seven overdoses in the month of October for me, coincidentally right after having being in the Top 5 for Xan Usage from July-Oct.