Aelius: forum

I was curious how long it would take to have a 50% chance of winning the jackpot, assuming you spun the slots 75 times every day.

TL;DR:

After 1 year of spins, there's about a 4% chance you'll have won the jackpot.
After 3 years of spins, there's about a 12.5% chance you'll have won the jackpot.
After 5 years of spins, there's about a 20% chance you'll have won the jackpot.
After 15 years of spins, there's about a 50% chance you'll have won the jackpot.
After a lifetime of 80 years, there's about a 2.8% chance you'll still never have won the jackpot.



Methodology and math:

According to Ched's data, there have been 48 jackpot winners in the last 18 months.1 That's 0.088153 jackpot wins per day.

The slot machine statistics page counts the total number of spins. Recently I made note of the spin count on the slots' statistics page (103,526,595), and then 30.5 days later I made note of the spin count again (105,177,780). Subtracting the former from the latter and dividing by the number of days that had passed, I concluded that there are an average of 54,134 spins per day.

That means there are 0.088153÷54134 jackpot wins per spin, which is a probability per spin of 0.000001628446.

The cumulative probability of having won the jackpot is (1-(1-0.000001628446)x) Where x is how many spins you make. If we make the equation equal to 0.5 (in order to see how many spins you need to have a 50% chance of having won by that time), x equals 425,649. Divided by 75 spins per day and 365 days in a year, it works out to about 15 years of spins. You can make x equal to any n multiple of 27375 to see the odds of having won the jackpot by n number of years. The reason for 27375 is because that's how many times you can spin the slots in a year.



1. I only used the last 18 months, despite data going back earlier, because Torn's popularity varies over time so I wanted to find a comfortable midpoint between having enough of a sample size and going too far back that the lower population skews the results too low.

Other caveats/assumptions:

This assumes the number of jackpot wins from January 2016-June 2017 was typical.

This assumes the slots were spun a typical number of times in the 30 days I kept track (the month of July).

This assumes the casino statistics page accurately updates the spin count regularly.

This assumes the probability of winning the jackpot is identical each and every spin (i.e. that the probability doesn't vary between players, or based on how long you've gone without a win, or anything like that.)

This assumes the jackpot has a constant chance of being awarded on every spin (i.e. as opposed to being guaranteed to be awarded if no one has won it in a while).

Here's a gif of the problem. I'm typing 26 into the text field, btw.

I tried it in another browser and the weird short text fields are still, well, short, but at least it lets me buy. In Firefox it doesn't even let me buy.

I don't know what more to tell you, but let me know if you need more info.

Pasted from similar thread:

Here's a gif of the problem.

The cause of this recent bug is as follows: the input field is attempting to ADD what you type to the total, rather than REPLACE the highlighted string with the newly typed string. Although, strangely, this is only a problem when there are comma thousands separators. Proof.

Also, this bug only manifests if the input field is valid. To prove this, add a letter (yes, a LETTER) to the input field. It will turn red because it's an invalid input and then allow you to select-all and type to replace. Here's a gif of it. That proves that it understands "typing when string is highlighted = replace string with new input", but only when the input field is otherwise botched (e.g. adding a letter to it) and only when there are thousands comma divisons.



There's a similar bug that has been around forever: Ctrl+A ("select all") immediately unhighlights.

Gif of the problem.

As you can see, it unselects immediately, without even typing anything. This has been a bug in Torn forever. The cause of the longstanding Ctrl+A bug is unclear, but the cause is NOT that it doesn't understand "select all". You can verify this by right-clicking the field and clicking "Select All" from the context menu - it will select all characters in the field.

Another wording problem that hasn't been mentioned yet: "...with 1% life remaining" means exactly 1%. So if your life is 3873, you need to have exactly 38.73 life, which is impossible - life can only be an integer. 38 life is is ~0.981% of your life, not 1%. 39 life is 1.007%.

The wording should be: "Win an attack that reduced your life to 1% or less." The crucial word is "that", which ensures that the reader understands that the attack must be what reduced your life to 1% or less (as opposed to, e.g., blood bags before the fight.)

But then, since when has clear wording ever been a priority for this game. *eyeroll*

Your mistake is assuming that the only people who would disagree with you are people who think gay people deserve to be harmed or given fewer rights. I support gay marriage. If that surprises you, consider that you've been subjected to a mind virus that precludes any nuance.

One day, someone will declare something you sincerely believe to be bigotry and permit no dissent or nuance. On that day, you will discover that which it seems society is condemned to perpetually relearn every single time: that the only stable arrangement is tolerance for diverse viewpoints and forbearance against those with whom you disagree, even when you have the power to plant your flag and rub their noses in it. On that day, I will accept your apology and coexist with you in peace. (But I will rib you and say I told you so.)

If the only way you vicious totalitarians will learn to keep politics out of nonpolitical spheres is the Bud Light treatment, then the Bud Light treatment it shall be.

Do you still lose NNB with certain crimes like drug deals? I seem to vaguely remember an update months ago that changed that? But my memory is hazy and may be mistaken, so I wanted to make sure before finally going for those last crime merits.

UI designers have to convince higher-ups that there's a good reason to change the UI, or else they'd be out of a job. So they change things for the sake of change. Happens all the time, to every site. Sad.

I've been trying to get the crash merit for months now. I've done about 300 races (all with 100 laps each) and have yet to crash. My racing skill is about 12. I've tried different maps, I've tried using cars with low safety, or with crappy stats, or with high speed, or with low handling. Nothing seems to make it happen.

Is it known what factors go into the likelihood of a crash?

I keep getting these emails about once a week. Why? And are these errors of any concern?

[image: i.imgur.com]

Currently, if the timer runs out on your turn, the game checks for you, if possible, otherwise it folds for you. In a hand where everyone keeps checking, this can get to be quite a ridiculous time waster for everyone else. Wouldn't it make more sense if the game simply folded for you when you timeout? Why are we bailing out, at the expense of everyone else, people who are inconsiderate?

Ah, nice, yeah it's fixed! Thanks a bunch.

Windows 10. Firefox 84.0.1 (yeah yeah I know). If it's not an issue with later versions of FF, then disregard my bug report - my fault for using an outdated version (although... it's FF's fault for making new versions screw up the UI, so nyehhh.)

How can I see where a cell is getting its value from when there's no formula specified? Consider, for example, column E on the companies sheet: the special money value. It says an Adult Novelties job provides $1,803,627. This is obviously half the value of an eDVD, because you can get it once every two days. Makes sense. But what about Farm? How is the value of $317,494 calculated? I assume it's based on energy can value, but which energy can(s)? In both cases, the cell isn't a formula - it's a number. Where can I see the formula that decides what to populate these fields with?

Another example is column M in the StockList sheet. How is McSmoogle's value calculated? We don't get to see that. What about Evil Ducks Candy Corp value? Or HRG? etc.

It's important to know this information in case we disagree with how to calculate it.

I think your TCI bank ROI is wrong. You are taking the amount that TCI gives you (approximately 35m with a 3 month investment) and treating it as if it's a weekly benefit (cell V13). It's not. It's a benefit once every 3 months. V13 needs to equal the investment length set in J5.

Just a suggestion: you can easily add the TCI bank stock into the chart. Just multiply the 10% bonus that you get from a 3 month investment by 4.0555 (365 days divided by 90 equals 4.0555). I'm not sure if there's an API thingy to grab the current bank rates, however, but I have seen other stock ROI tools do it.

Still a problem.

I think I might have spotted an error. TCT tier 3 says it's $72m on your spreadsheet, but really it's $96m. The value you have seems to be for 300k shares, when what you need is 400k shares.

I don't know what this "Chrome" thing is, but my Firefox window is at default zoom.

The patch notes from a few weeks ago says: [POKER] Added + and - buttons to the Bet Value Field to quickly and easily increment by 1BB

But this does not seem to be working. I only see one narrow button, and it only decreases. Screenshot below.

Is this everyone else's experience too?

[image: i.imgur.com]

Pressing check/fold only applies for one action.

Let's say there are three players: Player A, B, and C. You are player B.

• The flop comes and it's player A's turn to act. While it's his turn, you press "check/fold".
• Player A checks.
• Player B (you) automatically checks, because you pressed check/fold. Now the check/fold button is unselected, because it triggered.
• Player C bets.
• Player A folds.
• Player B (you) does nothing until you press something.

Same thing if the next street comes:

• The flop comes and it's player A's turn to act. While it's his turn, you press "check/fold".
• Player A checks.
• Player B (you) automatically checks, because you pressed check/fold.
• Player C checks.
• Now the Turn is drawn
• Player A bets.
• Player B (you) does nothing until you press something.

Am I correctly understanding the situation you're taking issue with?

The check/fold button only works for one action. Now, maybe there should be a "fold, no matter what happens, including on the next street" button. I don't object to that. It's just not the intended behavior of the check/fold button.

Err, okay, but why?

I suspect what happened was that you clicked check/fold, someone after you bet, then it came back around and required your action. If you weren't paying attention, it can sometimes seem like it didn't respect your check/fold choice. It did respect it, but additional events transpired that require further action.

Looks good!