Mercy_Seguin: forum

I love the fifteen minutes I feel like it shows who is the most active instead of who has the most luck at the tick.

I mean we are the underdogs here fighting for our home. Therefore we are using any and every strategy available to us. It happens to be available right now, so we are using it.

Ok yall I messed up so this is all null and void, it should have been a 1/37 chance not a 1/27 chance and I havent fixed it.  I may later if I feel inspired who knows.



I wanted to know.  I also wanted to work towards the 1000 roulette spins award. So I did a statistical study.  My brother told me I could have just looked into the code somehow, but I don't know how to do that.  What I do know how to do is statistics and Im a huge nerd, so here are my findings.  I only tested if you put a token on a single number, for every spin  my token was on 5.  Also this post is in gambling, however it was up a day and I got impationt and put it over here.

Ho: P=1/27 or 3.7%

Ha: P

What this means: we assume that you will win 3.7% of the time, if it is not rigged, because there are 27 numbers and you win when your number is chosen.  However, we are testing to see if it is rigged, so we are tessting if you win LESS THEN 3.7 percent of the time.

I chose an alpha of .05, which means 95% of the time, if I conclude it is rigged, there is a 5% chance that I came to that conclution due to random fluctuation, and it is not, in fact, actually rigged.

My sample size was well over 20 spins so I can sample without replacement.

Now to actually decide weather the game is rigged, the number of possible successes and the number of possible failures has to be greater then 10.  So I used the following math to figure out how many minimum spins I had to make.

np>10 and n(1-p)>10                                n>10/p and n>10/(1-p)                              n>10/(1/27) and n>10/(1-1/27)

n>270.00 and n>10.38

My number of spins (293), is bigger then both numbers, so my sample is aproxamatly normal.  

The hypothosized chance of winning is .037 or 3.7%.  I had 12 wins total.  My sample size was 293.  My samples percentage of wins was 4.1%.  I did a 1propZtest on my calculator.  I got a z score of .3551.

What does this mean?  The sample probability, 4.1% of spins where winning spins, is .355 standard errors to the right of the exspected probability, 3.7%.  So really not that far away.

There is a 63.9% chance of getting a sample with 4.1 % of the spins winning when the true probability is 3.7%.

Therefor, we cannot conclude that the roulette wheel is rigged with 95% confidence because the results are likely to have happened by chance.

I am 95% confidant that the true prabability of winning a roulette wheel spin is between 1.8% and 6.4%, bassed on my sample.  However, the game would apper to have a 3.7% chance of winning a spin, and as it is within my confadance interval, it is entirely possible the game is not rigged.  However, because this is statistics, I can never prove that the roulette wheel is not rigged, I can only say that there is not enough evidence to conclude that it is rigged

tl;dr--The roulette wheel is probably not rigged.

Ok yall I messed up so this is all null and void, it should have been a 1/37 chance not a 1/27 chance and I havent fixed it.  I may later if I feel inspired who knows.





I wanted to know.  I also wanted to work towards the 1000 roulette spins award. So I did a statistical study.  My brother told me I could have just looked into the code somehow, but I don't know how to do that.  What I do know how to do is statistics and Im a huge nerd, so here are my findings.  I only tested if you put a token on a single number, for every spin  my token was on 5.

Ho: P=1/27 or 3.7%

Ha: P

What this means: we assume that you will win 3.7% of the time, if it is not rigged, because there are 27 numbers and you win when your number is chosen.  However, we are testing to see if it is rigged, so we are tessting if you win LESS THEN 3.7 percent of the time.

I chose an alpha of .05, which means 95% of the time, if I conclude it is rigged, there is a 5% chance that I came to that conclution due to random fluctuation, and it is not, in fact, actually rigged.

My sample size was well over 20 spins so I can sample without replacement.

Now to actually decide weather the game is rigged, the number of possible successes and the number of possible failures has to be greater then 10.  So I used the following math to figure out how many minimum spins I had to make.

np>10 and n(1-p)>10                                n>10/p and n>10/(1-p)                              n>10/(1/27) and n>10/(1-1/27)

n>270.00 and n>10.38

My number of spins (293), is bigger then both numbers, so my sample is aproxamatly normal.  

The hypothosized chance of winning is .037 or 3.7%.  I had 12 wins total.  My sample size was 293.  My samples percentage of wins was 4.1%.  I did a 1propZtest on my calculator.  I got a z score of .3551.

What does this mean?  The sample probability, 4.1% of spins where winning spins, is .355 standard errors to the right of the exspected probability, 3.7%.  So really not that far away.

There is a 63.9% chance of getting a sample with 4.1 % of the spins winning when the true probability is 3.7%.

Therefor, we cannot conclude that the roulette wheel is rigged with 95% confidence because the results are likely to have happened by chance.

I am 95% confidant that the true prabability of winning a roulette wheel spin is between 1.8% and 6.4%, bassed on my sample.  However, the game would apper to have a 3.7% chance of winning a spin, and as it is within my confadance interval, it is entirely possible the game is not rigged.  However, because this is statistics, I can never prove that the roulette wheel is not rigged, I can only say that there is not enough evidence to conclude that it is rigged

tl;dr--The roulette wheel is probably not rigged.

 

Edited because you are not allowed to advertise torn clones on torn.




Hey y'all, so I was sitting on my plane to Japan, board as there ain't much one can do on a plane. So I googled for some text biased games as you do. The first thing I saw was a google ad for something called Redactied. (I'd just like to point out they paid to be on top). From the home page alone, I knew it was a rip off. But like any upstanding loyal citizen of Torn, I cheated on Torn and created an account.

It is very similar to the Torn page we all know and love. Now they have changed a few words around, like you did in high school when copying your best friends homework. Nerve is now "Mental." instead of defense, speed and dexterity we have "Balance, Agility, and Endurance." Instead of missions, we have "tasks" and so on.

I'm not going to talk about the bank, and the gym, and the crimes, and the market, and the hospital, because as far as I can tell in my first day, none of that has changed. Now there are some changes. The most obvious is energy generation, it only takes one minute to go from 0 energy to 100. (I really don't understand why the developer did this, I know 15 minutes per 5 energy does seem like a lot, but he could have decided to give 1 energy a minute, not 100) Another being the Nerve mechanic, now called Mental. You can either use it to commit crimes, or to work for a period of time. Personally, I actually like that change, you have to choose between working an honest job, or robbing a bank, just like in the real world. (I wasn't prepared to like any changes and I am ashamed I do, but one must be honest in a review) A HUGE change is the little xp bar. In Torn, the only way to figure out how close you are to leveling up *officially* is to go to China and pay 75 grand to talk to the fortune teller, and you can't even fly until level 15. (I think it is kinda cool the way torn does it tho) Which is a great transition to the next change, "Travel." At level 1, you can already travel. It costs you 2 "Mental." Because I read that you go farther into the city as you level up, and my only two options are "The Gutters" and "The City Fringes," I assume more places to travel unlock as you level up. Another big change is the donator pack or "Upgrade Account." There are some missions ("Tasks") that you cannot do unless you upgrade your account. There is apparently some kind of event going on that I cannot participate in because I do not have an upgraded account. In Torn, you can buy a donator pack with Torn money, which I did for about 490 days or so until I decided to become a subscriber last month. You defiantly get game changing benefits, mostly the fact that energy maxes out at 150 and regenerates at 5e per 10 minutes. However, you do not NEED one to participate in torn. Most noobs do not get one or even bother learning about them until later on in game play. This website has been trying to upgrade me since I signed up (and quite frankly I do not like that).
As for factions ("Gangs") I only see two of them and they only have 4 members each......... Is that all the players this game has?????


IF (big if) I play more, I may post an update.




TL;DR: Game ripping off torn and has stupid changes. One cool change. Probably new or very unpopular due to lack of players. Very low quality.

bump

I love the fifteen minutes I feel like it shows who is the most active instead of who has the most luck at the tick.

given that HW has lost a third of their lives before this post.......................
Whats the point of this post lol?

this is the most hilarious thing I have read all week.

Can confirm.

Daisy Dukes

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I know about 3 irl couples in my faction, they send each other stuff. But they are also online at different times, they are online at the same time sometimes, they have convos int the faction chat with everyone at the same time. Staff knows a singular person would have an incredibly hard time doing that.

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no one tell her what OP means

wait is this a Freudian slip? Is OP telling us she is a "Pro Photo Editor?"

orrrrr if he used photo editing like we suspect him of now. Good catch skyrover!

Yo I didn't even look at his mugs, OP is not even old enough to have been mugged.... hmmmmmmmm.......... suspicious...........