Because, despite all those people you've killed, old ladies you've mugged, small businesses you've robbed and burned down, despite the noobs you scammed and fules you insulted and bountied half to death, you're not a complete ****.
I agree,although if they were playing by 'normal' rules the chances would be even lower as you could explicitly rule out cards. The version I normally play, the average would drop to 70.9% and it's a little more complicated than just 'to the power of' - tho that's close enough. By those rules - and if a draw means you lose - it's a 1/5418 chance.
I have been dull and have paid attention tonight, for a change. I tallied all the cards I drew being notified of deck shuffles. I got a new shuffle after 60 cards, with many omissions and duplicates - tallied below:
c
d
h
s
a
xx
x
x
2
xx
xx
x
xxx
3
x
xx
xx
4
x
x
xxxx
5
6
xxx
x
xx
xx
7
x
8
x
x
x
9
xx
x
10
x
x
xx
xx
j
x
x
x
q
x
x
x
x
k
x
xxx
x
xx
I missed marking one turn but it looks like the kind of spread I would expect from new packs each deal
We regularly play a version of this after the pub quiz, and we were trying to work out the probability. It does get very difficult because it involves modals and some other kind of recursion. In ours, you only have to turn eight cards, but they go in order - the card you pull becomes the card you go higher/lower than.
Then I realised this version is much simpler. Not only do you draw a new card to play against each time, it's from a new pack, so each game has exactly the same odds. Then it was even easier again after finally noticing that draws mean you just play again.
So that means all you need to do is find the average chance of winning with each card, take an average of that and multiply it to the power of 25.
So (where 1 is whatever the lowest card is) that's:
1
1
2
0.916667
3
0.833333
4
0.75
5
0.666667
6
0.583333
7
0.5
8
0.583333
9
0.666667
10
0.75
11
0.833333
12
0.916667
13
1
Ave.
0.769231
To the power of 25 is 0.14% or an average of 711 goes.
Because, despite all those people you've killed, old ladies you've mugged, small businesses you've robbed and burned down, despite the noobs you scammed and fules you insulted and bountied half to death, you're not a complete ****.
![[image: i.imgflip.com]](https://i.imgflip.com/3j6il4.jpg){kind=link}