vizierly: forum

WARNING: You can still lose money using this system. The goal is to maximise profits over time and use the best odds to your advantage.

DISCLAIMER: Even if you do everything right, the random number generator may still roll badly for you and you can still lose. I take no responsibility for your losses and if you think you might not have good discipline when gambling you should stop reading here as this guide is not for you.

What is martingale betting:  Double your bet after every loss. It's madness.

What is Vizierly's strategy - bring method to the madness:

1. Host a game of Russian Roulette (RR). If you host, your opponent goes first, giving you a 1/6 chance of an instant win, and the odds of you winning if you host and don't go first are higher than 50/50 which seem to be the best odds in the casino. So never join someone else's game. Choose an amount 10 times less than what you're willing and able to lose, I'd recommend starting at 100k until you build the discipline to walk away. For this example we will bet $100,000 . 
2. If you win, great! Walk away, and don't bet again until tomorrow. Tomorrow you'll start again from step one and bet $100,000 again.
   If you lose, go to step 3.
3. Host a second game of Russian Roulette, bet $200,000 
4. If you win, you're overall up $100,000. Walk away, and don't bet again until tomorrow. Tomorrow you'll start again from step one and bet $100,000 again
   If you lose, go to step 5.
5. Host a third game of Russian Roulette, bet $400,000 
6. If you win, you're overall up $100,000. Walk away, and don't bet again until tomorrow. Tomorrow you'll start again from step one and bet $100,000 again
   If you lose, WALK AWAY. You've lost $700,000 today, you got unlucky. Let's stop the losses here. Tomorrow you'll start again from step one and bet $100,000 again. If you follow the system, the odds are that over time you will make that lost $700,000 back over the next week or so of winning 100k daily. 

IMPORTANT: Do not tilt when you lose 3 times and keep doubling your bets, remember that you're playing the long game. The danger is if you keep doubling and you have very bad streak you lose it all. Don't do that, be disciplined. Learn to walk away. Start low if you're afraid of losing big and make sure you're following the system. Remember it's all random number generation, you can still lose every game, what we're trying to do is maximise the odds in your favour of walking away with that $100,000 every day, it's not guaranteed.

Take the normal precautions when playing RR and be prepared to quickly vault your money or be hospitalised before the game to avoid being mugged as quite a few players watch the games and mug after a minute or so to try and mug the host of a game, especially at higher values. 

Assumptions:

1. Assuming there's an even chance of any bullet hitting. If you look at the RR stats, the second shot has the highest chance of being hit. I'm assuming here that this is because of the host not watching the game, running out of time to take their turn and having the opponent 'take action' to win the game.

2. Let's say the odds were actually 50/50, then the chance of you losing 3 times in a row is 1/8. So over a long enough time period you would have 7 wins of 1M and one loss of 7M. But since we know hosting RR has higher than 50/50 odds, you should be winning over the long term.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you're assuming each player must take 3 turns each in a game. But if the chamber has a bullet in the first shot, the second player doesn't have to click any more chambers, they won. 

You are right however that timeouts do give you a chance to win by joining someone else's game, however in the RR stats page, there have been about 51k timeouts over almost 5Mill games, so not so significant. 

We know that the chamber isn't respun on each turn because otherwise the game could potentially keep going on for more than 6 rounds if people keep getting an empty. We can assume that once a chamber is 'clicked', it's out of the game, which effectively means the chamber is set at the start. 

This is my understanding: 

If I go first, let me calculate my death probability.
This is basically the sum of an infinite geometric progression.

* I die by the 1st shot: 1/6
* Both survive after the first 2 shots and I die by the 3rd shot: (5/6)^2 * 1/6
* Both survive after the first 4 shots and I die by the 5th shot: (5/6)^4 * 1/6
...and so forth

The sum of the above: 1/6 * (1/(1-(5/6)^2))
= 1/6 * 1/(1-25/36) = 1/6 * 36/11 = 6/11

If I go second, my death probability = 5/11

WARNING: You can still lose money using this system. The goal is to maximise profits over time and use the best odds to your advantage.

DISCLAIMER: Even if you do everything right, the random number generator may still roll badly for you and you can still lose. I take no responsibility for your losses and if you think you might not have good discipline when gambling you should stop reading here as this guide is not for you.

What is martingale betting:  Double your bet after every loss. It's madness.

What is Vizierly's strategy - bring method to the madness:

1. Host a game of Russian Roulette (RR). If you host, your opponent goes first, giving you a 1/6 chance of an instant win, and the odds of you winning if you host and don't go first are higher than 50/50 which seem to be the best odds in the casino. So never join someone else's game. Choose an amount 10 times less than what you're willing and able to lose, I'd recommend starting at 100k until you build the discipline to walk away. For this example we will bet $100,000 . 
2. If you win, great! Walk away, and don't bet again until tomorrow. Tomorrow you'll start again from step one and bet $100,000 again.
   If you lose, go to step 3.
3. Host a second game of Russian Roulette, bet $200,000 
4. If you win, you're overall up $100,000. Walk away, and don't bet again until tomorrow. Tomorrow you'll start again from step one and bet $100,000 again
   If you lose, go to step 5.
5. Host a third game of Russian Roulette, bet $400,000 
6. If you win, you're overall up $100,000. Walk away, and don't bet again until tomorrow. Tomorrow you'll start again from step one and bet $100,000 again
   If you lose, WALK AWAY. You've lost $700,000 today, you got unlucky. Let's stop the losses here. Tomorrow you'll start again from step one and bet $100,000 again. If you follow the system, the odds are that over time you will make that lost $700,000 back over the next week or so of winning 100k daily. 

IMPORTANT: Do not tilt when you lose 3 times and keep doubling your bets, remember that you're playing the long game. The danger is if you keep doubling and you have very bad streak you lose it all. Don't do that, be disciplined. Learn to walk away. Start low if you're afraid of losing big and make sure you're following the system. Remember it's all random number generation, you can still lose every game, what we're trying to do is maximise the odds in your favour of walking away with that $100,000 every day, it's not guaranteed.

Take the normal precautions when playing RR and be prepared to quickly vault your money or be hospitalised before the game to avoid being mugged as quite a few players watch the games and mug after a minute or so to try and mug the host of a game, especially at higher values. 

Assumptions:

1. Assuming there's an even chance of any bullet hitting. If you look at the RR stats, the second shot has the highest chance of being hit. I'm assuming here that this is because of the host not watching the game, running out of time to take their turn and having the opponent 'take action' to win the game.

2. Let's say the odds were actually 50/50, then the chance of you losing 3 times in a row is 1/8. So over a long enough time period you would have 7 wins of 1M and one loss of 7M. But since we know hosting RR has higher than 50/50 odds, you should be winning over the long term.