First off, I know this is a little late, but it's been a long time coming. I spent several hours on it last year, didn't finish. Spent a few days this year, and hours writing this up and finally, I got this.
EDIT: The numbers for value per treat/ attack are not correct. I think the error lies somewhere in calculating the revitalize return on hits when combined with dark energy. I'm going to work on this more later, but for now, enjoy my (mostly) correct math. This DOES mean, though, that every energy source is probably profitable. Will edit pictures when I have time.
Halloween Questions and Answers
Question: How many attacks does it take on average to fully upgrade a basket to Nightmarish? (Mostly following Andyman's recommended upgrade path)
Answer: About 2239 attacks
I adjusted basket rates as they changed the whole way through. Feel free to reach out with your own numbers if you disagree with any of my numbers.
Question: How many treats (on average) do I get per attack with a fully upgraded basket? (i.e., Nightmarish and all multipliers)
Answer: 1.724 treats per attack
Note: my final number differs from Proxima's 1.72424 by 0.00024. I believe in Proxima's EV numbers, he forgot to subtract the chance for Cat in Hell to proc from the 120 treat chance giving him an EV of 0.00120 as opposed to my 0.00096. The rest of our numbers agree though
Question: How much energy do I get per treat exchanged?
Answer: With Dark Energy, you get 5. With Freebie, you get 5.5, with Cashback and Freebie, you get 6.05556 (or 6.06)
Question: How many treats will you get per 25 energy, when factoring in Dark Energy?
Answer: With a maxed basket and dark energy, about 2.96 treats per 25e. Up to 3.97 with a 24% revitalize (highest in the game that I'm aware of).
Important note: this is a) assuming perfect conversion of treats. b) this is exchanging in the treats you get after each attack in for more treats, attacking more, exchanging. i.e., this is the "final treat value" of 25e (exhausting/ spending all treats)
Interestingly, a 10% revitalize is worse for your treat gain than using a scary weapon. The reason for this is because, while it increases the number of attacks you can do, it decreases the average number of treats per hit by more than it increases attack counts. Because of this (and for easier viewing), I'm going to exclude it and a few other revit percentages in further graphs.
Question: What is the minimum value of revitalize I would need in order to attack infinitely over Halloween?
Answer: About 62.72%
This was actually the hardest thing for me to solve. I danced around how it would work, since I wasn't sure how the loop would work. It seems obvious to me now, but I kept making incorrect assumptions. I finally settled on "when the effective cost of an attack is equal to the expected energy returned, that's when you'll likely go infinite."
The effective energy per attack is calculated by taking the initial cost of an attack and multiplying by 1 minus the revitalize percentage, so every percent in revitalize is worth a .25 reduction to the energy cost of an attack. This is corroborated by the math for "expected number of attacks," which, for a 10% revit, is not a 10% increase in attacks, but an 11.1111111% increase in the number of attacks. This is because of the repeating geometric series r/(1-r), or because every attack you make gives a 10% chance to give back 1 attack, but those 10% returned attacks also give a 10% chance to return the energy cost, which, when used, is expected to give back 10% of the attacks, and so on and so forth.
Dark energy works kind of like a 42% revitalize weapon.
Oh, and the negative values on the graph there are because you're now getting more energy back than you're spending (with a 63% revit weapon), so the math just stops mathing.
Maximizing Energy Usage Over Halloween
Question: How much energy can I use over the week of Halloween?
Answer: Anywhere from ~3000 (Spending exactly ZERO Torn or real dollars on anything) up to over 30k energy, requiring lucky timing, maxed faction perks, stock blocks totaling over $280 billion and then spending about 500m) - It looks like the sweet spot for value is right around 22k
Not much to be said here. I opted for FHC's both this and last Halloween, giving me probably about 8000 energy between the two years. I finished upgrading my basket and did my first exchange, but my luck has been a bit below average for multipliers and general treat rates (and 15-20 missed attacks). I joined Torn just after Easter, so I couldn't make use of Green Eggs, but those are always the best booster for your energy, no matter what. I also wasn't in a 7*+ candle shop last year or very long this year so I had fewer than half of the needed job points to make full use of Halloween.
For MCS, you're able to redeem it twice during the event, much like how you can use 8 point refills and 800 job points, despite Halloween only being 7 days or 168 hours long.
A 7*+ candle shop and 800 job points (in time for Halloween), will provide you with the BEST value for Halloween.*
*A 10* farm has the greatest maximum potential value since it can give 7 energy per job point, up to 100 per day (and Halloween takes place over the course of eight different days, since it's not midnight to midnight, hence 800 job points or 5600 energy). The issue is that farms star up and down every other week, so most years the farm will only be able to make use of half to 3/4ths of Halloween at most. A good director will try to make sure to line up the planting week with the longer half of Halloweek (so it's a 10* during the majority of Halloween), but if that ends up being any less than 5 of the days of the week, it's net worse than just staying in a 7* candle shop (or 10* game shop). So practically speaking, 7*+ Candle shops are the way to go.
Typical Halloween Setup:
With the exception of the FHC's (as you'll see a little later on), I think this is what most people should strive for. A 7* Candle shop, again, massively valuable. The best money you can spend is on xanax, then point refills. Donator status is about half as good as points, then finally cans and FHC's are about 25x less efficient ($/E) than xanax. This is basically my own setup, except I didn't have enough job points.
Maximum Energy Pool Possible (annually):
The really incredible thing about this is that this is technically ANNUALLY REPLICABLE (minus the farm/ books). That's an absurd amount of E. Mouthwatering. The only way that to feasibly increase this for a single year is to go inactive for the whole year except Halloween.
If you swap the Candle Shop for a Farm, it's -1600E, or 29670 for Can/ F2F and 29790 for FHC/ UE.
But even without any books, it's still a crazy 23390e every year. Only luck involved are OD's and 2 green eggs. Doable and not uncommon.
The only way to actually have more energy than this is
- come back after a long period of inactivity with 100 special refills and use them all (and have the rest of the setup be the same)
- changing out the Candle Shop for a Television Network and saving for multiple years. I'll make another post after this one covering all of this, but I figure it diverges too much from the focus of this post.
Maximizing Profit Over Halloween
Full Cost Analysis of Cans vs FHC:
Looks like a great spot to be is Red Cow/ Rockstar range. Half as expensive as FHC's, ~75% as much e. Really rad. Regrettably, rendering this now really reveals how -slowly- I wrote this.
The only ways to get more energy for Halloween than an FHC (without reading a book) is to be in a Restaurant, but that only gives an additional 1080e (plus 2400e from the 3e job special), so it's better to do Candle Shop/ FHC's than Restaurant/ Cans. That being said, Voracity makes all cans more cost-effective than FHC's except when reading Ugly Energy.
Value of Your Attacks:
This should be the most important graph. This is the profit maximizing graph. Since we all do Halloween to make money, right? (Looks at everyone that's summoned M'aol) RIGHT?
Using this 9999 treat exchange, we get an average value of 739k per treat.
Breakdown of Booster Cooldown:
$739k avg treat value, No faction perks
If your faction has minimal Voracity perks, you'll get the most value out of Cans of Munster or Crocozade, but FHC's still give amazing profit if you own the 24% revit MP5 (but for most people, FHC's are a net loss of money, as are cans of Taurine Elite)
$739k avg treat value, Full Faction Voracity
So even with full voracity, (this tracks, actually, based on the cost analysis of Cans vs FHC's) Taurine Elite only make a profit above 12% revitalize. But now it is 100% clear, Red Cows provide the best value
How much profit can I expect from Halloween?
Energy Sources Everyone should be using:
(Lowest $ cost and opportunity cost energy sources)
The lowest value I got was $688,787 for exchanges using market value at the end of Halloween (basically the worst time to sell). The highest was $926,194 if you had exchanged basically at the beginning of Halloween. As far as maximum selling value, I feel like I remember seeing somewhere that expected value per treat can reach 1.5m. I'm not sure about that, but I plugged it in for fun.
I also ran plugged in for highest net and gross profits, just so people could compare to what Torn.report and similar trackers show. I think this shows that I probably did my math right (always potential for mistakes with this many moving parts).
Note: the "Low opportunity cost" image has net profits, rather than gross. Considering that people routinely report making over 2b, and I think sometimes over 3b, this feels about right, if perhaps a bit low, but at this point I can't be arsed to spend any more time on this.
Possible sources of error may come from upgrades such as mortal coil/ inflation, different reported market values, inactivity refills, the actual exchange outcome and of course exchange efficiency.
Conclusion:
Once you've unlocked your maxed-out basket, you can easily expect to take home over 1.5b in profit every Halloweek.
Your best options are:
- Get in a Candle Shop at least 80 days in advance (number of days is 800/ star-level of the shop)
- Stack xanax, save your newsletter and green eggs, have 240 points and ~30 xanax
- Maintain donor status over the event, and have 1-3 stock blocks of MCS
- Use either Cans of Crocozade, Munster or Red Cow
- Get in a faction that can have maximum voracity (or as close to it as you can)
- Revitalize guns are optional. I wouldn't recommend buying one unless you plan on using it year-round
If you disagree with any of my findings or can spot any errors let me know. If you would like to take a look at the math in depth, send me a message and I'll send back my formulas and methodology.
































