Cheat sheet/TLDR
G1: 1 2 3
G2: 4 5 6
K = confirmed digits (GREEN + ORANGE)
K=3 → Rearrange → WIN (100%)
K=2 → G3: A 7 8 → ~93% WIN, 7% 50/50
K=1 → G3: A 7 8 → ~78% WIN, 22% 50/50
K=0 → G3: 7 8 9 → 50/50 on getting a 50/50
Combo chests feature a puzzle similar to Wordle of finding a 3 number combo within 4 attempts.
Importantly, a number will only be used once, so NO triples (111, 222, etc.) or doubles (112, 696, etc.)
When a number is guessed each box will light up one of 3 colors. GREEN, ORANGE, or RED
GREEN - Number is right AND in the correct spot
ORANGE - Number is right but the spot is wrong
RED - Number is wrong
Using this information we now need to find the correct combination from the 504 possible.
Now I don't know about you, but I like free stuff, so I want to get as many of them open as possible. As such I have run the math to determine the best strategy. I am posting it here for 2 reasons, 1 I want everyone to benefit from as much free stuff as possible, and 2 what better fact checker is there than everyone combing over your logic?
DEFINITON: Forced Guess - If all remaining valid solutions are reduced to exactly two symmetric permutations, the final guess is forced — guessing anything else guarantees failure.
Feel free to change up which numbers are your 3 "groups", but in my opinion it is easiest to group them as 123 456 and 789.
STRATEGY
Guesses 1 and 2 and only for information. We are hunting for GREEN and ORANGE. This strategy assumes every confirmed number is ORANGE. GREEN is obviously better but not needed.
- Guess 1 - 1 2 3 - Note any GREEN and ORANGE
- Guess 2 - 4 5 6 - Note any GREEN and ORANGE
- Guess 3 - We act based on the information received. Then make a Guess 4(if needed) based on the result.
IF we have 3 confirmed(K=3): Rearrange all ORANGE. G4 WIN.
IF we have 2 confirmed (K=2): Take one ORANGE and move it, play 2 numbers from 7-9 (example A 7 8).
G4 93.3% success rate, 6.7% chance of 50/50.
IF we have 1 confirmed (K=1): Take the ORANGE and move it, play 2 numbers from 7-9 (example A 7 8).
G4 77.8% success rate, 22.2% chance of 50/50
IF we have 0 confirmed(K=0), we guess 7 8 9. This is the worst-case scenario; we know that the code will be made from 7 8 9 but have no other information until Guess 3 is entered and then we have to take all that info and apply it to guess 4.
IF we get a GREEN on G3 we WIN.
If G3 is all ORANGE, we have a 50/50 guess
