chrdle: forum

30 happy birthday

Hey guys,

A friend and I have been discussing a theory while scouting targets, and we'd love to hear your thoughts or see if this aligns with your experience. We are definitely not sure if these correlations are reliable rules, so treat this purely as an open discussion.

1. Estimating Mug Loss from Bounty Stats?

Our premise: low-stat traders and casual gamblers rarely place big bounties for no reason. Most of the time, they only drop serious cash on bounties out of emotional tilt right after getting mugged.

We started looking at their Average Bounty Size:

The average bounty amount = the number of bounties published divided by the amount of bounties spent 

From a couple of recent hits:

• Target A: Mugged for ~$70M —— Put up 10x $1M bounties ($10M total).

• Target B: Mugged for ~$14M —— Put up 3x $1M bounties ($3M total).

From these limited cases, it seems players with decent networth rarely throw around $1M+ bounties unless they lost at least $15M – $20M+. We wondered if their "revenge budget" roughly sits at 10% to 25% of what they lost:

Estimated loss per mug ≈ Average bounty size ×(4-10)

Example: One target had $16M spent across 9 bounties (~$1.77M average). If the 4x–10x multiplier holds, his lifetime losses to muggers might sit around $60M – $120M+, suggesting he regularly carries liquid cash and gets farmed.

2. How Do You Interpret Defends Lost & Medical Item Usage?

Besides bounties, we noticed a few patterns in other non-combat stats, but we aren't sure if we're overthinking them:

• High Defends lost relative to total defends (e.g. 23 losses out of 24):

  • We interpret this as a sign the player is already on several muggers' personal watchlists and has a track record of being an easy mark.

• High Medical items used relative to Times in hospital:

  • If someone has a lot of medical items used compared to their hospital count, does it typically mean they have a habit of using blood bags/morphine to self-release immediately instead of waiting out hospital time?

  • In theory, that makes them vulnerable to chained mugs or getting hit again before they can bank their cash.

Questions for Experienced Muggers:

1. Does the 4x to 10x ratio (Bounty size vs. Mug loss) sound remotely realistic to you, or are bounties way too random/emotional to gauge wallet size?

2. How do you interpret Defends Lost and Medical Item Usage when scouting? Do you actually factor those in before deciding to burn 25E?

Looking forward to hearing how you guys read these numbers!

(Maybe the number of days I play games is relatively short, and my goal mug is less than 50 days)

30 happy birthday

Thank you for your article. It inspired me. Most of my money is in Green Leaf mug. There is still some distance to 2b

when I can become successful like you 😭

happy jump and eat 3 xan re rn everyday 

Yes, thats very common. At one times I with other player who bs 500m mugged the same person (5m). I didn't get last attack. But he hos me 5 times haha

Thank you for your comment. Qualifying races do indeed significantly increase the data on medical supplies and hospitalizations. Recently, I've spent a lot of time in casinos looking for targets, but there are many empty guns. So I want to find some patterns to help me find targets better.

Hey guys,

A friend and I have been discussing a theory while scouting targets, and we'd love to hear your thoughts or see if this aligns with your experience. We are definitely not sure if these correlations are reliable rules, so treat this purely as an open discussion.

1. Estimating Mug Loss from Bounty Stats?

Our premise: low-stat traders and casual gamblers rarely place big bounties for no reason. Most of the time, they only drop serious cash on bounties out of emotional tilt right after getting mugged.

We started looking at their Average Bounty Size:

The average bounty amount = the number of bounties published divided by the amount of bounties spent 

From a couple of recent hits:

• Target A: Mugged for ~$70M —— Put up 10x $1M bounties ($10M total).

• Target B: Mugged for ~$14M —— Put up 3x $1M bounties ($3M total).

From these limited cases, it seems players with decent networth rarely throw around $1M+ bounties unless they lost at least $15M – $20M+. We wondered if their "revenge budget" roughly sits at 10% to 25% of what they lost:

Estimated loss per mug ≈ Average bounty size ×(4-10)

Example: One target had $16M spent across 9 bounties (~$1.77M average). If the 4x–10x multiplier holds, his lifetime losses to muggers might sit around $60M – $120M+, suggesting he regularly carries liquid cash and gets farmed.

2. How Do You Interpret Defends Lost & Medical Item Usage?

Besides bounties, we noticed a few patterns in other non-combat stats, but we aren't sure if we're overthinking them:

• High Defends lost relative to total defends (e.g. 23 losses out of 24):

  • We interpret this as a sign the player is already on several muggers' personal watchlists and has a track record of being an easy mark.

• High Medical items used relative to Times in hospital:

  • If someone has a lot of medical items used compared to their hospital count, does it typically mean they have a habit of using blood bags/morphine to self-release immediately instead of waiting out hospital time?

  • In theory, that makes them vulnerable to chained mugs or getting hit again before they can bank their cash.

Questions for Experienced Muggers:

1. Does the 4x to 10x ratio (Bounty size vs. Mug loss) sound remotely realistic to you, or are bounties way too random/emotional to gauge wallet size?

2. How do you interpret Defends Lost and Medical Item Usage when scouting? Do you actually factor those in before deciding to burn 25E?

Looking forward to hearing how you guys read these numbers!

(Maybe the number of days I play games is relatively short, and my goal mug is less than 50 days)

congratulation 

good luck everyone

Good luck everybody

Joining in!

我 like money