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Slot machine odds

Started by APerson [1814084] on in Gambling.

9 replies · 473 views · thread synced · 6 days ago · View on torn.com
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APerson [1814084]

Odds of getting jackpots etc.

So, there are 8 different possibilities for each line (Duck,Car,Chocolate,Bat,Shotgun,Pistol,Barrel,Torn - Not on this order)

8^3 = 512, So, each different outcome has 1/512 odds of happening, (About 0.195% chance.)

Now, let's analyze all the possible outcomes:
The reason why the Pinata combination is gotten most often (and gives the lowest paycheck as well) is because it has 3 different symbols - Bat,Duck and Chocolate, this is a big advantage, as these items don't need to be in one order, there are 6 possible orders (BDC,BCD,CBD,CDB,DCB,DBC). So, among the 512 different possibilities, 6 of them give this award, this gives an odd of about 1/85 (1.176%).

Pinata is the only combination that requires 3 different symbols, other combinations require 2 equal symbols and a different one, though Meltdown Gun Fight and Vandalism have the very same odds as there are 2 possibilities for them (2 chocs 1 barrel/2 barrels 1 chocs etc)

Other than that, there are awards with 2 equal symbols+different one who don't let you "choose" which do you want to have 2 off (Duck hunting/Serious Duck Hunting/Road Kill/Drive By) These can be placed in 3 different orders, giving them a probability of 1/170 (0.58%)

The rest of the prizes have, like I said odds of 1/512.

Adding this up

Pinata / Meltdown / Vandalism / Gun Fight - 6/512 (each) - Total 24/512
Duck hunting / Serious Duck Hunting / Road Kill / Drive By - 3/512 (each) - Total 12/512
Flock'o Ducks / Sweet Tooth / Home Run / Firing Range / Overkill / Pile Up / Radioactivity / Jackpot - 1/512 (each)-Total 8/512

There is a total probability of 44/512, about 1/11 of getting a prize on the slots


Johnn111_X [1886538]

Math doesn't work anymore when the odds can be controlled programmatically. I bet with all my money that the odds to get jackpot is not 1/512.
APerson [1814084]

That is a fact too, though randomness does repeat itself, but surely it can be altered, I just mentioned the maths of the game, but even if they were, the odds were preety low, still
Wickedclone187 [1024010]

I have started with 75000 Casino tokens playing the slots I've used probably a total of 2000 something shouldn't I have hit Jackpot by using little over 2000 Casino tokens I think there's something wrong what's that slot machine I just don't understand how I haven't hit jackpot yet could I get a helper or whoever knows about this to get back with me thank you I appreciate it
Stylish [1983409]

You're pretty much asking a helper to make you win the Jackpot lol?
That's not how gambling works, otherwise we'd all be rich.

Just keep rollin' and you'll eventually win it with all those tokens.
BAG [1985070]

Try rolling dough it helps with the technique and your chance will be a lot higher of hitting the jackpot.
SourRon [852964]

When I play slots I'm only interested in seeing TORN appear on the left wheel because without that there is no chance of a jackpot.

From my experience TORN on the left wheel seems to occur about 1-2 times in 100. If similar odds apply to getting TORN on the middle and right wheels then I would also guess that the odds of hitting the jackpot are about 1 in 300,000 (0.015^3).

To extrapolate my guesswork further, at a rate of using 75 tokens per day it would take near to 4000 days to get a fair chance at winning the jackpot once.
HandsomePants [1897243]
Total turns about 75.5mill

There have been 100 jackpot winners since 2013-03-09. How long have the Slots been around? Just dividing those two numbers we get ab out 1 Jackpot in 750k spins.

But if you look closer at the stats, there have been 8 winners so far in 2016, 21 winners in 2015, 29 Winners in 2014, and 42 Winners in 2013 back to March 9th.

So it seems either the odds changed at the beginning of 2014, or the number of spins dropped dramatically... that was around Respo time eh? Maybe both happened.

Either way if we extrapolate the 2013 winners to a whole year it's 52, then add identical years in 2011 & 2012 as a guess, that would make 214 Winners in 75.5mill spins = approx 1 Jackpot every 350,000 spins, pretty close to SourRon's guess.

Edit: fixed some maths