Talking Shop

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Before when begin we need to know that there is no such thing as a for sure bet. Anything can happen so don't throw down if you don't want to lose it



Tonight:

MMA - UFC:

Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson

I got Elkins on this one. His move to team alpha male has been productive for this fighter. Plus I don't think that Johnson has fully recovered from the beat down he received in the Gaethje fight even if he is dropping down a weight class.

Result: Elkins by Sub. (payout : 6,036,291)

Van Zant vs Clark

This is a 50/50 fight, but I will go with Van Zant - I think while not a world beater, she has made some adjustments to snap her losing streak.

Result: Clark by DEC (didn't place a bet)

Usman Vs Meek

Meek is probably the biggest dog here, as he should be going up against a powerhouse in Usman, but I am going with Meek. He can throw his hands and has the knock out power to stop Usman.

Result: Usman by DEC. (-2mil)

Bets:

I'm staying away from the Choi vs Stephens fight which most likely will be a slug fest.

I put money on Meek and Elkins.

Good luck everyone!

Total: + 2 mil and some change

Today:



African International Play: Cameroon vs Congo

These two teams are evenly matched. Cameroon should have a slight speed advantage and they are playing at home.

My Pick: Cameroon at a multi of 2 - 6 mil

Result: Congo (-6mil)



NBA:

Here we go. As much as I want to believe the Cavs can turn it around with a big win over the Warriors - I don't see it happening tonight. The Cavs look dysfunctional at the moment. They are an older team and will make a run post all star break, but the Warriors, barring anything catastrophic, will cover -5.5

My Pick: Warriors -5.5, multi 1.9; 10 mil

Result: Warriors 118-108 Cavs (+ 19.1 mil)

Total: +3.1 mil

Over night bets (1 mil a piece)

Horses

KEMPTON 1635 HANDICAP 6F

I'm taking Mercers (8 multi) over the favorite Olaudah. Reason is Mercer has a better win rate on poly track and is a strong placer.

Result: Mercer (payout 8 mil)

KEMPTON 1740 HANDICAP 7F

Welliesinthewater is a long shot with a 21 multi, but with 4 wins and 5 places on poly - I'm taking it.

Result: LucyMai (-1 mil)

KEMPTON 2010 HANDICAP 1M 7F 218Y

I'm taking East Indies at 6.5 multi. This horse is in good position (6) to take it home.

Result: Argus (-1 mil)

KEMPTON 1710 HANDICAP 7F

Tavener at a 4.5 multi seems to be the pros choice here

Result: Baltic Prince (- 1 mil)

Total: +4 mil

Today:

NHL: Sharks vs Coyotes

The Coyotes are dead last in the Pacific and the Sharks are roughly middle of the pack. While the Coyotes can at times lay down the law, I see the Sharks talent bringing home the victory.

My Pick: Sharks at 1.62 (5mil)

Result: Sharks 3 - Coyotes 2 ( +3 mil and some change)

NCAAB: Louisville vs Notre Dame

Tomorrow's game between Notre Dame and Louisville should be a good one. Both teams have a big time college names, but Notre Dame has the numbers this time around, plus Louisville is going through an in house scandal that has made recruits nervous and the FEDs pay attention.

My Pick: Notre Dame at 1.91, HC -3.5 (10mil)

Result: Bet deleted bookie error

Result: Louisville by 4

Total: + 3 mil

NBA:

Wizards vs Hornets

Here we are again. Are Wall and Beal going to have a big game? Will they get help from the bench? These are questions of consistency and the Wizards are anything but. Yes, the Wizards have had the benefit of being in a weak division, but then again so do the Hornets. Both share the middle of the pack in the Southeast with Miami hanging on to first place by a game, with the Wizards right behind. I think Wall and Beal will step it up and send the Wizards to victory.

My Pick: Wizards to win, multi 2.05 (5 mil)

Result: Wizards 109 - Hornets 133 (-5 mil)

PLEASE REMIND ME NOT TO BET ON THE WIZARDS AGAIN - SERIOUSLY IF I DO PLEASE TELL ME NOT TO LOL

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Post liked Post

Football

Nambia vs Uganda

Nambia is rolling in with confidence from their upset over Ivory Coast, and Uganda's coach is new. So I will look toward Nambia in this one. Result: Nambia 1 Uganda 0 (+13,000,000)

My Pick:

Nambia at 2.6 (5 mil)

Result: Nambia 1 Uganda 0 (+13mil)

Monterrey vs Dorados

Dorados is a scrub team from top to bottom compared to Monterrey.

My Pick: Monterrey at 1.5 (25 mil) [because the Wizards are playing like shit, I upped this bet by 20 mil)

Result: Monterrey 2 Dorados 1 (+38,333,333)

In this profit review I will also go over the bets I didn't have time to post:

Bets that were not posted:

• You have won the bet on the FRA.Guingamp v Lyon game! You bet $5,000,000 on Lyon and won $11,000,000!
• You have won the bet on the MEYDAN 1725 HANDICAP 6F game! You bet $1,000,000 on Faatinah and won $4,500,000!
• You have lost the bet you made on the MEYDAN 1540 HANDICAP 1M game. You bet $1,000,000 on Layl
• You have lost the bet you made on the MEYDAN 1505 HANDICAP 1M 2F game. You bet $1,000,000 on Rothenburg
• You have won the bet on the MEYDAN 1430 STAKES 7F game! You bet $1,000,000 on Winter Lightning and won $9,000,000

Total bets: 12

Total bets (correct): 6 = 50% [with one incorrect deleted bet and one incorrect with no money = 6/14]

Total profit (bets not posted): 15 mil

Total profit (bets posted): 28, 433,333

Combined profit: 43,433,33





Today's bet:

NCAAB

Michigan vs Nebraska

23rd ranked Michigan has a win over 9th ranked Michigan State, which is a very solid team. On the other hand non-ranked Nebraska's best win is over a good Northwestern team. With the small H/C I think I'm going on the minus side.



My Pick: Michigan -4.5 (10 mil)

Result: Michigan 52 Nebraska 72 (-10mil)

Total: -10 mil

UFC 220

[image: i65.tinypic.com]Ngannou vs Miocic

In fight sports heavy weights never fail to capture the imagination. I remember as a young kid watching in awe as Mike Tyson left his mark on Spinx in seconds. Then many years later Holyfield dismantling Tyson. Before MMA heavy weight boxers were the men of men, the biggest and baddest. Now we have Ngannou and Miocic.

Ngannou has risen through the ranks with scary violence. His knockout of Overeem was legendary. He is a giant fighter with fierce tactical instinct, which is why he is the favorite over the champ Miocic.

Miocic has knocked out some truly great heavy weights in Overeem, Junior Dos Santos and Werdum. The only legend he is missing is Valazquez, who has been sidelined by injury. Just like the legends he has finished, Miocic has a chance to put a stamp on his own legacy by becoming the first heavy weight to defend the strap three times.

This match up brings back the those memories of the heavy weights of old, but with smaller gloves, which almost means lights out action.

My picks for UFC 220

Miocic vs Ngannou

My pick: Miocic (a great underdog bet) 10 mil multi 2.65

Result: Miocic by Dec. (+26.5 mil)

Homasi vs Alhassan

My pick: Alhassan (dude can knock people out) 30 mil multi 1.4

Result: Alhassan by knockout (+42 mil)

Total Profit including bets not posted: correction: +12 mil

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NFL not posted: +9 mil (Thanks Gunz on the Jax +7.5)

NCAAB not posted: +26.1 mil on Virginia -9.5

Horses: Maestro Mac +5 mil

NBA: Hawks over Jazz +1 mil

Total profit so far: +80 ml

I have $159mil on the Patriots minus the 7.5. Brady will hit his Running Backs with short, quick passes in the A and B slots, negating Jax' Cornerbacks, all afternoon. Belichick will out-coach Bortles and Jax' Offense.

Anything else forthcoming? I was really enjoying this thread.

Yes, I'll have some more fights lined up and possibly some basketball. I'm scouring the bookie for something interesting :)

UFC on Fox 27

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This card has been scoffed at. Words like scraping the barrel have been thrown around. Yes, most people haven't heard of a single name on this card, even the headliner is more for avid MMA fans than the occasional onlooker. I personally enjoy cards like this. I mean how else are we going to get to know the fighters that bleed in obscurity? There are a few fights on this card that I like a lot. So let's start.

Souza vs Brunson 2

Souza is aging, yet. powerful. He is a multiple time jujitsu champion that has submissions over tough fighters in Gegard Mousassi and Tim Boetch. He also KO'd Brunson in Strikeforce, but that was in 2012.

Brunson on the other hand is a live dog. He doesn't have the credentials when compared to Souza's resume. He does however have 1 notable win in his long career over one time UFC champion Lyoto Machida and a loss via extremely controversial decision against the 15 time UFC champion Anderson Silva. Of course Anderson is on the decline, but one has to take notice of Brunson's striking.

To me this is a pick'em fight. We have 2 older warriors fighting for money, because their glory days might have past. Souza is the favorite, but I am going with Brunson on this one, especially after the beating Souza took in his last outing against Robert Whittaker.

My Picks:

Souza vs Brunson

My pick: Brunson (5 mil, multi 2; good underdog bet)

Result: Souza by TKO (-5 mil)

Dober vs Camacho

My pick: Dober ( 20 mil, multi 1.5; Dober has youth and explosiveness on his side)

Result: Dober by Dec. (+10mil)

Bermudez vs Fili

My pick: Bermudez (10 mil, multi 1.5: Fili is just too inconsistent, but coming from TAM camp it is tempting)

Result: Fili by Dec. (-10mil)

Total plus bet not posted: (-19 mil)

I banked 50 mil and took out 50 mil to start again

Total left after today's loss: +31 mil

Auburn vs Ole Miss

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Any one that follows NCAAB knows that no matter how good Auburn has been or is now, they have not been able to beat Ole Miss at home in 10 years. Yes, you read that right, a one sided rivalry that has spanned over a decade.

Auburn comes in with all the right stats they are 40th in points scored and 26th in total rebounds, compared to Ole Miss which is 139th and 90th respectively. No to mention toward the end of the game when fouling is almost automatic, Auburn is 7th in free throw percentage, while Ole Miss is 106th. To any one Auburn at -4.5 seems like a lock, but Ole miss has history behind them.

My Pick: Anyone can argue the plus or minus side of this match up and they would be right. This is a tough match to call, nevertheless, in a time of big changes for the NCAAB I am going to go with Auburn.

Auburn -4.5 (8 mil)

Result: Auburn 79 Ole Miss 70 (+6.96mil)

[after some bets not posted - total 57mil = 7 mil profit]

This just came in: You have won the bet on the SOUTHWELL 1525 HANDICAP 7F 14Y game! You bet $1,000,000 on Essential and won $21,000,000! Put my profit up a bit further.

UFC Fight Night 125

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(Priscila Cachoeira and Valentina Shevchenko)

Fight Night 125 will be held at Guilherme Paraense arena in Belem, Brazil. This card has some great match ups but the one fight I am looking for is Valentina Shevchenko vs Pricila Cachoeira. Let me preface this by mentioning that with Valentina at multi 1.1 has no value betting wise, but the fan in me can't wait. Valentina has got to be one of the most precise strikers in the UFC that means men and women. So if you are a fan of striking and a more traditional martial arts style then this fight should be a treat.

Now on to betting:

Dodson vs Munhoz is going to be a frenetic fight. both of these warriors are extremely fast in fact it might be better to watch this one in slow mo after the fact. Nevetheless, along with speed and power Dodson has the technical advantage here without a doubt. This mike-wink camp fighter has been in there with champions to boot and at a 1.57 multi is a can't miss in my opinion. Even if Munhoz can claim home field I just don't see him having a chance in this one, but it is the fight game and anything can happen, after all that's how heroes are made.

My pick: Dodson (10 mil) BOUT CANCELLED! MUNHOZ MISSED WIEGHT.

If you are looking for a bit more action Means vs Morares looks to be a striker vs grappeler match up, but Moraes despite being a jujitsu ace opts for a crowd pleasing stand and bang style, which won't fair too well against a lanky technical striker in Tim Means. If Moraes has been working on his wrestling to compliment his jujitsu then it would be a long night for Means, however, I don't see that happening and Means at 1.5 is difficult to resist, especially if you have seen his KO resume.

My pick: Means (5 mil)

Result: Moraes by Split Dec. (-5mil)