BAG Payout Statistics

On the 26th of November, Ched changed the frequency of the BAG stock payout to occur, on average, once every 30 days.

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Since there are 24 hours in a day and dividend payouts are distributed on the 48-minute mark of the hour, it means there are 720 possible payouts in those 30 days. (24 hours x 30 days = 720 possible payouts)

You should think of this as, "each hour I have a 1 and 720 chance of getting a payout and a 719 and 720 chance of NOT getting a payout."

It is much easier to calculate the chance of getting a payout over the course of a month by first calculating the chance of not getting a payout. Bear in mind 719/720 = .99681, so you essentially have a 99.861% chance of NOT getting a payout each hour. Thus, the chance of getting a payout is simply 1 minus that amount. (0.139% chance)

Here's where things get tricky. Over the course of 30 days, you have 720 different combinations of payouts that are possible. You could get unlucky and see 0 payouts on all 720 hours | You could get 1 payout on the 143rd hour of the month and no payouts on the other 719 hours of the month | You could get lucky that month and get 2 payouts... the first on the 156th hour and the second on the 593rd hour and no payouts on the other 718 hours of the month | etc.)

To calculate your chances of getting a particular number of payouts in a month, take the chance of not getting a payout (.99861^number of no payouts) x (0.00139^number of payouts) x the total possible combinations.

If you'd like to do the calculation yourself, see the picture below showcasing a spreadsheet containing the # of combinations and formulas! Load image: cool
[image: i.imgur.com]

Spreadsheet image with no formulas:
[image: i.imgur.com]

tl;dr - In any particular month you have a:

• 36.762% chance of getting 0 BAG payouts
• 36.814% chance of getting 1 BAG payout
• 18.407% chance of getting 2 BAG payouts
• 6.127% chance of getting 3 BAG payouts
• 1.528% chance of getting 4 BAG payouts
• 0.304% chance of getting 5 BAG payouts
• etc. (As you can see, it will be extremely unlikely that you ever get more than 5 BAG payouts in a particular month)

Note - This is the same type of math you will use to gauge other aspects of the game, such as how many critical hits you can expect over the course of 11 hits in an attack with a 20% crit rate vs. a 23% crit hit rate. Or how often the MG3's Blindfire bonus triggers. (Permutations as opposed to combinations in the MG3's case! Load image: smiley)

Hopefully this was helpful,
- Andyman Load image: cool

I was honestly thinking the same thing, I guess great minds do think alike eh.

MAAAATHS

INCOMMINGGGGG


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No, we do not want to read all this!. Stop encouraging him people!

Or use this :P https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

I love you Andy.

Typically I would intepret the rate of these payouts to mean that they follow Poisson statistics. But given that Chedburn has never stated that these rates should be understood in this way (as far as I know), a part of me still wonders whether there are additional free parameters in these payouts that remain undisclosed.

I just click things..

It's all relative I suppose.

To me, THIS is worth a fortune. Load image: grin
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it's worth alot if you know that the only way to get special ammunition is using mission credits

*and Gun Shop points. Load image: smiley

im too f**king high for this

I mean, its great that you get a kick out of doing this sort of thing i guess

I've had BAG for 61 days and I've never once had a payout from it.

13.07% chance of this happening.

(719/720)^(24*61)

I swear you and proxima have way too much time on your hands...