Keno Odds Guide

As most of you probably know, in Torn Keno, you select anywhere from 1 to 10 numbers out of a total of 80. The computer then picks 10 numbers (in real life Keno it's typically 20), and then based on how many numbers you selected, and how many you matched, you get different payouts.

This got me thinking about whether the current odds were evenly balanced - is there a selection that yields better expected results than the others? The following tables summarize the results. The first is a payout table from the casino, the second is the calculated odds of any given combination, and the third simply multiplies the two to give an expected average result, then sums all the possibilities up for a total expected average payout.

The best odds are only picking 1 number - your expected payout is even then, but it's also not very large. If you want a bit more excitement, your best bet would be to pick 6 numbers - your expected average loss would only be $240 on a $100,000 bet.

Note: this of course assumes the number selection is actually random. If there are some numbers that get hit with a higher frequency, even if small, the odds are close enough that you could likely tilt it in your favor. However - I have no evidence one way or another on that, so we'll assume the numbers are random.

TL;DR - If you care about winning money in the long run, Keno is not the game for you. If you want to play a game with only a slight house advantage and like the idea of big possible payouts, go ahead and play, but the chances of winning 10B by getting more than 7 out of 10 is so small that no one has yet gotten it in 27 million turns played.

[image: snipboard.io]

[image: snipboard.io]

[image: snipboard.io]

Also... just for fun, I did the odds table expressed as a 1 in X chance, so you can see how absurdly unlikely it is to get the big payouts

[image: snipboard.io]

Thank you for solidifying my never playing keno again.

Just doing a community service ;)

My buddy fizz won craptons of money from keno. I will tell him this guide

It of course is possible to win big in Keno just like any other game of chance. The point was just to see if selecting a certain number gives you better expected offs than any other.

Also, as I said, if the numbers are not random, there is major potential to game the system.

I won 50m once, then I sold the numbers in trade for 5m more. I still have the numbers saved somewhere.

KENO all the freaking wayyy baby

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Thank you. Super helpful:)

Am i reading your table correctly if I read it says there is a 1 in 26,472,637 chance of getting 7 mumbers out 10?

Because if so, and if you say no one has won that yet in 27million turns, then does that show that the game is rigged? Or maybe it means that it is due to payout?

Or have I entirely misunderstood your Table and comments?

...ah wait, you say "more than 7 out of 10" i.e. 8 out of 10 for 10B. And the odds for that are over 1 in 644million. Wow. No that is certainly not due to payout any time soon. Or, lets face it ever unless this game is still there going in another 300 or so years. Wow, yep, wow is all that can be said about that little reality if I have intepreted it correctly. Wow.

NT

What he actually said was, "but the chances of winning 10B by getting more than 7 out of 10 is so small that no one has yet gotten it in 27 million turns played.”. 

 

This is sort of useless information to me. It proves nothing. To win the 10B you have to bet enough to win the 10B, and likely most didn't. 

 

What would be more usefull is knowing how many out of X total spins matched 2 or more numbers. Can anybody tell me that? 

 

Then how many got 3, 4 and so on. Maybe it is up there, but this browser won't let me zoom in, so I can't read the graphs.