Common Crime CE & Money gain

That is my own success rate with almost 3000 attempts. I’m not a statistician but it’s more data than a lot of people have that post their success rates

3000 is great stats - do you have all the enhancers/perks?

Yeah, I was 50 & 55 NNB when I did the bulk of the Kidnapping, had probably 5 merits in crime success, Federal judge and most of the faction crime perks. Though I think most people would say I was already at the success cap so most of that was a waste.

Hey, a few people are doing Kidnap Woman crime to test it's success rate.

If we assume a success rate of 64%, would it be right to say it gives 97.67% of arson CE gain/nerve?

Can you please double check this math?

Yeah, that math checks out as long as there are no Fail - Jail results. How many crime attempts is that success rate based on?

Not much currently. 200 crimes.
Gonna do 1k atleast.

I just used 400 nerves due to Beer Day and tried Kidnapping Mayor crime when I've 30NNB and all crime edu, job, and merits, and all I got was 1 red, 2/3 blues, and the rest were success when obviously I didn't cap success rate for the job and so far with this results of mine, I'm confident that the gain from Mayor is way better than Arsons as long you've crime success maxed with no fails.

So I used 405N to do 27 Mayor Kidnapping attempts and I failed once (paid 75k), and got blue 3 times which means 89% success rate for me despite that I didn't reach 45NNB yet and maxing that CE cap while when I do 20 Arsons on average, I fail once at least in the process and go to hospital with 1 blue attempt max which means a total of 90% success rate in Arsons and something to note tho, I've both Lighter (Arsons enhancer) and Chloroform (Kidnapping enhancer) while doing all these attempts.

So in my case, when both success rates are literally the same for both jobs, 2.25CE will always be superior than 1CE but I've no idea if fail without going to jail would be a bad factor in this equation since I don't know if it cause me to lose CE because I paid 75k cause I failed or not.

Another thing, if I used your exact data, 2.25CE*75%/15N*11N=1.24CE which means for the same amount of nerves as Arsons, Kidnapping Mayor gives 1.24CE on average using the results on your sheet and as for what I did here, multiplied Mayor CE by 75% and divided it on 15 to calculate CE for each 1N then I multiplied it by 11 to compared to Arsons CE, still... I might've understood something wrong of your calculations which would make my results wrong so correct me if I missed something.

Just a couple of things, I used the CE ratio published in the newspaper article (1.9) not the 2.25 estimate from torn stats.

Everything else you said I would agree with, however, I would assume the discrepancy is due to sample size. My kidnapping data has approx 4K attempts. Your data has maybe 100 attempts. If you continue kidnapping mayor, I wouldn’t expect your 75% to hold.

I wish you'd add thorough robbery to this list.

But all in all, incredible job. We need more people like you in Torn, and in the real world

If Thorough Robbery figures were included in the CE study published in the paper, I would absolutely add it in. It’s probably one of the more practical crimes to have included, at least for newer players. Until then, not much I can do.

Thanks for the kind words!

800 tries so far. Success rate hovers between 64% - 68%

That is great news. I am currently testing as well and will add results as soon as I have a large enough sample size. Thanks for sharing

Curious what your sample sizes are for each of the tests. For each n, the error bars associated will probably be on the order of sqrt(n) unless some additional statistical tricks are used.

I'm kinda curious since i remember seeing in tornstats

Kidnapping was 2.25x of an arson and GTA was 0.66 and you've considered both less than that

So my doubt is . Should I go by your or tornstats o.O

Here are the numbers I am using:

[image: i.imgur.com]

I'm using the figures provided in the newspaper article on Crime Experience here. Its more recent and I dont know how much rigor went into determining the numbers provided by TornStats. I was a bit disappointed when the CE ratio for Kidnap Mayor dropped like it did.

Thank you.

Am I reading this correctly that transportation of Amphetamine still has a nett positive CE gain of roughly 1/4th of warehouse?

yep, its all based on the 1:20 ratio so it might be a little more or less depending on the true ratio but it should be a net positive CE crime

And here I was thinking it had a negative return. Noice