My own findings on happiness effects on crime

So i decided to do a little actual reserach on it. Im at 30nnb, with 4 CE merits, the Federal Judge Bonus, and the crime enhncer for the crime i chose. (Kidnap Women) i used my a max PI (+LSD bonus), a Ranch at 1200, and my shack. These are my findings.

Kindap Woman

Happiness 5333 Success 17 Fail 11

Happiness 1200 Success 15 Fail 13

Hapiness 100 Success 15 Fail 13

Did 28 of each with 1304 nerve, using some stacked points from an AP. Very minimal difference overall, none between Ranch and Shack. Other variables could effect it too. But as far as i can see it does effect it slightly, with higher happy giving more greens. Of course this can be built upon, happy hunting to the proper TORN-Scientists

how womang is kindap

how ransom is formed

Think this is way too small of a serving size to test....

I leave this to people like Proxima and Andyman

Andyman did some but his was also a capped success rate NNB. (Post 45) I figured some numbers from someone who may still be affected by lowered natural success rate could lead to a different study.

Yeah i know but its what i had

How many times did you pray during this process though?

I prayed once today but broke a prayer streak i had trying to get the merit

As has been said, you'd need a much larger sample for this to mean anything. Probably ~20x as many as you did at each happy level, at LEAST.

Far too small of a sample size.

It's like saying I could flip 2 coins when happy and sad and get heads on all 4 coins and conclude that you'll always flip heads.

It doesn't work like that. You'd need a sample size of a couple thousand runs.

R+ for attempting to be productive.

The biggest issue here(besides the sample size) is that you're not taking other variables like crime experience into account.

Without controlling for that, you'll never be able to tell how much happiness impacted the failures or if they were result of the loss of crime experience when at your highest happiness. (which 11 failures means you've lost somewhere around 220 kidnappings worth of exp)

R+ for effort, even Andyman had to start somewhere

Not to mention the impact of fail on CE and thus the ratio found.

I'd vsay the measurement method isn't valid.

For each outcome, take the square root of that number to get a crude estimate of the error associated with it. For instance, 100 successes has an error of +/- 10. You'd need to see the number of fails fall outside of the range of 90-110 for your data to hint at a difference in probabilities between the two.

Why did you select kidnapping woman, what is the average success/fail of that crime?

Interesting you should keep it up if you plan on doing it, I wonder how accurate you can be not knowing where you're s/f rate is.

Thank you for taking the time to investigate and share. Regardless of the limited amount of samples used, it may offer clues that even additional bonuses do not take it further perhaps? Maybe the additional success form the happy was over-kill?
Read that there was a potential "max" success rate for some crimes...

End of the day, Torn is really a "black-box" and maybe only a few would know how exactly things are calculated... If it is assumed that getting a red gives -20x crime exp.... you would have gotten -693x loss on your crime exp doing this....so who knows. Maybe crimes 2.0 will offer more insight...because as it is, we are either doing 'Arson Warehouses' until the end of time or other crimes that we have no idea if they actually increase the invisible crime exp.. Would be more engaging to have crimes that offer visible risks and opportunities... The balance is way-off imo, and hope it is being looked at in the update..

"... a few would know how things are calculated..."

It is probable that even Ched doesn't know how these are calculated anymore since it is his archaic, broken system of old.

as others have said, this is very lacking on the sample size, but it's a start. more importantly, it has started some discussion on it.

btw for Kidnap Woman, the success rate it has seems to point to it being more or less the same in CE gain as Arson Warehouse.
and there are no blue fails for Kidnap Woman, only red.