This is not exactly accurate. An unranked faction can lose many times and give several factions a rank increase without losing their unranked status, so its not a zero sum game like you imply.
Cache recession
Started by Primefun [2333027] on in General Discussion.
Posts archived: 45 / 45 posts (100%) · the total is Torn's reply count + the opening post at the last fetch
True, haven't thought about that
The secretary problem explained in that link assumes a finite set, so wouldn't be applicable here.
![[image: profileimages.torn.com]](https://profileimages.torn.com/b802ab0a-e032-bcb9-2116762.gif){kind=link}
The number of secretaries that will be interviewed is the finite set, not the number in the world.
Similarly, the number of RW caches you can afford to open is a finite set. Even if you assume you can resell the weapons you don't keep and buy new caches with the proceeds, you can roughly estimate how many you are likely to be able to open in total. The answer is then to open that number divided by e, and then keep the first weapon you open that is better than all the others you have opened so far.
However, there are a couple of differences between this and a traditional secretary problem. One is that an 'interviewed' weapon doesn't have to be lost forever. You can either keep weapons you open and only sell them off as you need the money - which means you can always go back to an earlier weapon if you like - or you can buy one of the earlier ones back, probably, if you regret disposing of it.
The other difference is that you don't start from a point of "no secretary". You have an existing non-RW weapon, e.g. an armalite, and some of the interviewed/opened weapons are going to be worse than that. It's quite possible you could get to the end of all the caches you could afford to open and find nothing was as good as your basic armalite. So the assumption that you will definitely have to hire someone is also not valid here.
Similarly, the number of RW caches you can afford to open is a finite set. Even if you assume you can resell the weapons you don't keep and buy new caches with the proceeds, you can roughly estimate how many you are likely to be able to open in total. The answer is then to open that number divided by e, and then keep the first weapon you open that is better than all the others you have opened so far.
However, there are a couple of differences between this and a traditional secretary problem. One is that an 'interviewed' weapon doesn't have to be lost forever. You can either keep weapons you open and only sell them off as you need the money - which means you can always go back to an earlier weapon if you like - or you can buy one of the earlier ones back, probably, if you regret disposing of it.
The other difference is that you don't start from a point of "no secretary". You have an existing non-RW weapon, e.g. an armalite, and some of the interviewed/opened weapons are going to be worse than that. It's quite possible you could get to the end of all the caches you could afford to open and find nothing was as good as your basic armalite. So the assumption that you will definitely have to hire someone is also not valid here.
did not understand a single word you wrote, but got my upvote.
Supply and demand??
Start of RW saw no supply and huge demand. We’re seeing more supply now, still big demand. Prices will fall as supply finally meets demand.
Prices will continue to fall until market is saturated, and what is leaving the market (inactivity, etc.) balances with what is coming in. Definitely more falling to be done.
The prices will tick up when there is a way to get rid of unwanted RW weapons (Big Al’s Bunker?), but it will fall back down Again as the supply/demand curves rebalance.
Start of RW saw no supply and huge demand. We’re seeing more supply now, still big demand. Prices will fall as supply finally meets demand.
Prices will continue to fall until market is saturated, and what is leaving the market (inactivity, etc.) balances with what is coming in. Definitely more falling to be done.
The prices will tick up when there is a way to get rid of unwanted RW weapons (Big Al’s Bunker?), but it will fall back down Again as the supply/demand curves rebalance.
Oh yeah, you're right. It is still a finite set. Though your model seems to be trying to select for the best weapon, not the most valuable. The original premise was one of profit.
Edit: I think the secretary problem just isn't applicable. This is a scratch-card situation.
Edit: I think the secretary problem just isn't applicable. This is a scratch-card situation.
Cache prices were always going to go down, early adopters have had six months now to acquire much of the gear they were interested in, and as factions rank up the supply of caches generated each war increases.
It was inevitable since demand for caches is entirely user generated, they don't have a Ched enforced price floor like DPs and Points, unless you count what Big Al will pay you for the gear. People willing to pay high prices will equip themselves, then prices will drop, then people willing to pay the new price point will equip themselves, then prices will drop, and so on.
Unless Ched adds new weapons/bonuses to the pool the price of caches is probably not likely to ever rise without large scale trader manipulation.
It was inevitable since demand for caches is entirely user generated, they don't have a Ched enforced price floor like DPs and Points, unless you count what Big Al will pay you for the gear. People willing to pay high prices will equip themselves, then prices will drop, then people willing to pay the new price point will equip themselves, then prices will drop, and so on.
Unless Ched adds new weapons/bonuses to the pool the price of caches is probably not likely to ever rise without large scale trader manipulation.
The only way to stop the fall of prices is an implementation of a minimum sales price, not unlike points and donor packs.
Who knows what Big Al’s Bunker will give us (The devs probably do)
Who knows what Big Al’s Bunker will give us (The devs probably do)
Cache price floor will be determined by the release of the weapon exchange program in...hmm ...5 years?
This kind of nonsense is the reason I love you
Ya im still waiting for that prick to give my dual weapons a orange bonus and buff that he promised and never followed through with ? not to mention a stack of top end dual melees
This needs to happen. I don’t even see many people using the dual melees anymore. Considering these are limited items, these RW weapons with specials are better then these duals.
Ched needs to buff these duals and add some specials imo
Ched needs to buff these duals and add some specials imo
Yeah, Ched really screwed the pooch on this one.
An old school limited special weapon that thanks to yellow katanas is absolute dog shit now.
An old school limited special weapon that thanks to yellow katanas is absolute dog shit now.
Demand will stay decrease with rich people with full sets.
This will only be added after crimes 3.0
Alot of cache openers like myself have also joined the boycott on caches,
especially heavies, made no sense that the cache is worth more then item inside,
And sellers dictating cache prices
especially heavies, made no sense that the cache is worth more then item inside,
And sellers dictating cache prices
It's dictated by demand, if no one buys it will continue to go down
Exactly why us cache openers have stopped buying and opening, and formed the boycott