Organized Crimes and Recommended NNB

I haven't done much of an update lately. Figured I should explain why.

We jumped into a PA team in February 2022, started estimated TOTAL CE of 145k. I asked everyone in the team to start smashing warehouse arsons and busts. The four of us topped out at 5600 arsons a month for the start.

Since then we've grown as a team to over estimated 213,400 TOTAL CE, as of last CE grab. We've dropped a bit recently to ~65% success. For the longest while it felt like constant success. 17pass/7fail

Plan was to start up a new team at 120k Total CE and give it a shot to see success chance. Sadly due to some membership change over only 2 of the next 4 hit 30,000 CE at the same time, so we're splitting out the main team to make two 155k teams (checked the numbers 160k and 158k) and going from there.

My plan is to split these teams again in December and run 4 teams. Which has been my one of the goals I set out for myself this year. 4 successful teams in under a year.
So really I have to febuary to accomplish 2023.

I'm going to be looking for a Law Firm come November, if you know of a good one or are hiring send me a message ;).


Useless details.
Total $ Earned: 3.05B
Total Respect: 3,905

[image: cdn.discordapp.com]

Everyone has been developed in house. Zero recruiting has been done to get us to this point.

Next update sometime soonish.

bump

bump

I don't have much of an update since my last post, we're currently sitting at about a 55% success rate between the two teams.

	Team 1	Team 2
1st	F	F
2nd	F	P
3rd	P	P
4th	F	F
5th	P	P
6th	P	F
7th	P	P
8th	F	P
9th	F	P
10th

I've been doing some Chatting With Hornz and will be starting a weaker team next week, about 105CE.

A larger update likely December/January when I have some more data.

I started a weaker team last month also, 1 S and 1 F. 107k arsons.

Btw what is "P" ?

Pass. I guess I can change it to an S

Always glad to see the effort of those trying to push for earlier entry into PAs and more data.

Just as a heads up, since the completion of my original test over a year ago my total success rate basically floats at 78% (136/173) nearing the 80% "soft cap" for most realistic PA team set ups without pre-nerf bust leads. My record for PA post test alone are 44/56, but this is with different team set up almost every other week.

**edited my recent CE check**
[image: cdn.discordapp.com]

It'll be interesting to see if my "soft cap" theory holds up to others as well in the long run.

As always thanks for everyone here sharing.

Very iteresting. Currently experimenting with weak PA teams as well as recording stronger ones. Started recording in july so I'd rather share later when there's more data. So far I have data points in the 70-120k and 180-240k ranges, nothing in between.

What I can share is we've had a success with a team just over 75k total arsons although as expected success rate is bad.

My observations fit with maledict's experiment in the corresponding range.

Also I am still not convinced there is a soft cap for success

How is the experiment going.. ? We're currently looking in to splitting our 1 team up in two but it means that we're going to have two teams under 100k..

It is slow to gather results with the 8 days wait. 5 success 1 fail in the 120k-140k range. I was very surprised that many teams succeeded, we've been super lucky. Can't say much more for now. Bellow 120k, success chance seems to be somewhere in the 10-25%.

Considering this and what Fatbears reported I wouldn't go bellow 120k arsons total. But If you do please report anyway

Alright so continuing off the previous data.

Team 1 Started 155k CE. After 16 attempts 56% Success
Team 2 Started 155k CE. After 16 attempts 50% success
Team 3 Started 105k CE. After 7 attempts 42% success
Team 4 Started 120k CE. After 6 attempts 33% success
Team 5 Started 300k CE. After 6 attempts 85% success. Irrelevant to the testing as this is a carry team.

The two main teams have taken quite a dive in success rate. The first team seemed to pick up steam for a bit and now is slowing down where the opposite is true for the second team. It was weaker and is now catching up.

I have a theory as to the why the 4th team is struggling but I have no way to test currently.

Great info all!

I'm looking for the amount of Warehouse arsons each OC is worth approximatly.
I have looked trough a lot of guides, but i can't seem to be able to find it.

Anyone here know where i can find this intell?

Many thanks!

There's no real information about it.

Previously it was considered every OC is about half CE of the one above it. PH 150, CL 75, MT 37, PR 18, BT 9. Kidnap 4, BM 2.
But with all the people rushing 60nnb there's a lot more information that counters that and shows that MT and lower are considerably lower than previously thought and I don't think anyone is studying the lesser OCs at this point and less reason to with them working on OC's 2.0

This is very rough data of course but in this actual thread you have this paragraph in the OP:

"

• Higher OCs provide more CE per player-hour as well. Now we only have figures from Nash's testing: 650 arsons equivalent for a PA, 150 - PH, ~72 - CL. I've checked Money Trains extensively, and the figure is pitiful - around 10-15 arsons (shout out to all the 60NNB speedrunners, who keep track of all their crimes). Extrapolating from here, I'd say PR offers about 3-7, and the rest isn't worth mentioning, at all.

"

Bump

Update: now at 15 success 2 fails for 120-140k total arsons teams. Still think we are way above the actual success rate for that range since our main teams are around 200-220k with a 70% success rate

Still it seems to me that 120k arsons would be a good starting point for factions that are getting started with PAs

Nothing means anything. Everything is chaos.

Just start trying PA's

Did you take off 15k for 60NNB?

Interested in this too, I think from Hornz previous comments, its a no and its just total CE, but someone can correct me