Pointless Hyper-inflation Crumbles Economy

With point values dropping and no end to the decline in their value in the near future, I predict their value to be halved within a few weeks. Their value dropped to 10k within months. Its time to get out of the market if your holding out, waiting for a rebound in price, you are going to be making a mistake. 

The pushback when alternative suggestions have been made regarding points proves they are adamant with their resolve to leave points unable to be sold back to the system as well as leaving no alternative ways of removing points from circulation.

Currently, as there always has been, there is a influx of points into circulation through sets being sold to the museum, ranked war rewards as well as a trickle from donator packs opened, subscriber draws and some stuck in their ways on crimes 1.0.

There are more points entering circulation than being used by the active torn masses. This can be proven by the trillions quoted as being generated by the pawn shop where people sold points, all whilst the price of points had remained stable on the points market.

With more points being generated/printed into circulation we are seeing hyperinflation take place in real time with the points value. Soon plushie and flower running will become less and less profitable and traders will stop trading of these items as much as their margins will become less lucrative.

Even with every active player suddenly able to afford cheap refills I do not believe that demand will keep up with supply. The points will continue to decline in value until a point where flying is barely profitable and that is where they will stay. Plushie and flower sets are going to crumble in value, as well as all the other trade-in items for the museum. It will destroy the flying & trading communities.

You should get out whilst you can.

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flying will continue to be a way of passive income for most without other income streams just will be less profitable as the traders start paying less for their items the profit margins will dwindle.

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🤷‍♂️

I would need to know the source for the majority of points farming. Is it flying? Is it bonus points from buying bulk DPs? Is it from ranked warring rewards? Is it points racket imbalance? 

The theory of flying for flowers/plushies that turn into points has expanded to bigger relevance due to the Flying Club creation a few years back. Prior to that, I'd say flying for flowers/plushies was not as prevalent as now, % wise to the overall growth of our player base (if 1000 people were flying from a 10,000 active player base a day in 2018, to now 2000 people flying from a 50,000 active player base in 2024, it's not really a correlated increase - especially if your active player base are buying more points over time). However, in this type of economy we are in where IRL inflation is increasing and more people have discretionary income to spend on games like Torn, I'd have to argue it's easier to just buy DPs than fly (instant gratification instead of earned over time). 

I can't really comment on points racket imbalance as I've never seen the historical data on the production of these rackets over time. 

So, I think it's safe to say points became a problem when too many people were buying bulk DPs and earning point bonuses from their purchases, on top of ranked war payout points added to the economy each week - more so than flying for flowers/plushies to be exchanged for points. 

As if inflation wasn't bad enough in real life. Now I gotta log into torn and deal with inflation here too. Never thought I would see the day...

Yeah... new players have to fly for points, there is simply no better alternative, so the points will keep coming. And thanks to perfectly selected timing just after museum day, there is a huge supply of points in circulation, so it will take a long time before they are sold out and the price stabilizes for supply==demand.

What did the doctor at the fertility clinic say to the nurse running their sperm donation drive?

That's high-inflation, not hyperinflation.

If points value depreciate rapidly, people will be less incentivised to fly for points-making items.

Which will reduce the supply, levelling out the point value eventually.

Add in a new points sink somewhere, and they won't just endlessly fall into nothing.

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its cause and effect. if points become cheaper (which they will because there is not bottom out price now we cannot sell them back to the system) this means that plushies are inherently worth less. with plushies worth less and most traders basing their prices on percentage margins of point values they will start buying plushies for less to make the same margins.

Because the traders are now buying for lower the flyer gets paid less per trip. More points will then be generated (more than active players can consume) which will drive the price down further.

This cycle will repeat until an equilibrium between flyers saying it is no longer profitable to fly and traders have no points to sell because they are not able to buy for their margins on point values. at this point to price will stagnate at a perfect equilibrium of supply and demand of users wanting points for refills. 

whilst this is now stagnated at a price of aprox 10k each the flower runners are now getting 5x less money than what they used to earn. There are less runners willing to run. less traders willing to trade as more competition in the market eats up all the supplying runners.

New players will have no way of making an easy income like they used to.

you might even see a loss in active players of torn due to this, which will continue to drop the price down in points even further.

No offence mate but nobody should be taking financial advice from a guy with a blue name and 6b nw

lmao as if my networth has anything to do with financial advice-worthiness. Not even like this is financial advice anyway its simple economics supply vs demand.

You're right about the basic market forces (absent a Pawn Shop floor price to prop it up, an equilibrium will develop between supply and demand), but where are you drawing conclusions like

whilst this is now stagnated at a price of aprox 10k

or

the flower runners are now getting 5x less money than what they used to earn

from? Points were at just above 45k post-Museum Day, and are presently ~40-41k (a roughly 10% drop). Flowers have seen a roughly similar drop (e.g., Peonies were ~80k, now ~72k; Cherry Blossoms from ~66 to ~60, etc). Maybe that continues, maybe it doesn't, how can you know where the equilibrium price will level out to?

with no floor basing it from how many points several trillion would have gotten you @45k a point (the stable amount that used to be sold to the system yearly) vs an estimate on total points usage. thats how i came up with this figure. Its an educated guess but if you want to come up with a model that has a different figure be my guest.

No. As OP stated, they'll settle at a floor where flying desirability and value intersect as OP stated. I can't tell if you're taking the piss or serious. If you're serious then Torn may be in more trouble than we thought.

SNIFF SNIFF, WHATS THAT BOY? WHAT DO YOU SMELL?

WOOF WOOF IT SMELLS LIKE BROKE IN HERE 

Where are my boxing gloves? 😂😂😂

Id say it's fair to say that contributed, just hard to say by how much. The war rewards was probably a poor choice and done thinking "as long as its not cash" only for it to become cash lol. 

I suspect more RW than whales. You're view may be slightly skewed on whale impact as one yourself.