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1B TO 100B from RR [5B]

Started by TheALFA [2869953] on in Gambling.

106 replies · 1.54k views · thread synced · 3 days ago · View on torn.com

Posts archived: 107 / 107 posts (100%) · the total is Torn's reply count + the opening post at the last fetch

PanMeat [3729018]

If an opponent 2x or 3x you, does that affect your expectation for the game or do you count it as a different type of loss? For example if they 2x you on first shot and you die on your first shot, would you consider that a normal loss? 

TheALFA [2869953]

Doing x2 or x3 does nothing but increase my odds of winning.

think of it as follows:

In RR, the deadly bullet is not pre-determined, but every chamber is a separate 50/50 roll except for the last one, so by doing x2, you're rolling that 50/50 twice in a raw which will make ur odds lower 

 Click for more details about the odds.

Scenario: X1, X1, X1, X1, X1, X1 P1 Loss: 50% | P2 Loss: 50% Comment: Fair Odds. Optimal and safe play by both.

 --------------------

Scenario: X2, X1, X1, X1, X1 P1 Loss: 67% | P2 Loss: 33% Comment: P1 Mistake. Increase Loss to 67%.

 --------------------

Scenario: X1, X2, X1, X1, X1 P1 Loss: 50% | P2 Loss: 50% Comment: Fair Odds. P2's x2 is an unnecessary risk; a safer x1 yields the same outcome.

 --------------------

Scenario: X1, X1, X2, X1, X1 P1 Loss: 67% | P2 Loss: 33% Comment: P1 Mistake. Increase Loss to 67%.

 --------------------

Scenario: X1, X1, X1, X2, X1 P1 Loss: 50% | P2 Loss: 50% Comment: Fair Odds. P2's delayed x2 is a needless risk when x1 was safer for the same odds.

 --------------------

Scenario: X2, X2, X1, X1 P1 Loss: 50% | P2 Loss: 50% Comment: Fair Odds. P1's opening mistake is nullified by P2 matching aggression instead of playing a safe x1 for a 67% easy win.

 --------------------

Scenario: X2, X1, X2, X1 P1 Loss: 67% | P2 Loss: 33% Comment: P1 Mistake. Repeated aggressive Increase Loss to 67%.

 --------------------

Scenario: X3, X1, X1, X1 P1 Loss: 67% | P2 Loss: 33% Comment: P1 Mistake. Increase Loss to 67%.

 --------------------

Scenario: X1, X3, X1, X1 P1 Loss: 33% | P2 Loss: 67% Comment: P2 Mistake. P2's x3 Increase Loss to 67%.

 --------------------

Scenario: X1, X1, X3, X1 P1 Loss: 67% | P2 Loss: 33% Comment: P1 Mistake. Increase Loss to 67%.

 --------------------

Scenario: X3, X2, X1 P1 Loss: 67% | P2 Loss: 33% Comment: P1 Mistake. P1's x3 is a huge error. P2's x2 is also risky; an x1 would have been better for P2 with same win chance.

 --------------------

Scenario: X2, X3, X1 P1 Loss: 50% | P2 Loss: 50% Comment: Mutual Mistakes. P1's bad opening is cancelled by P2's a X1 by P2 would increase his win to 67%.

 

So the only effect that I take into consideration is that if I win when a player does x2, I look at the deadly bullet. If it were the first one, then it's a natural win as he didn't reach the second try. 
If he loses on the second try, then it is an unhealthy win (meaning I won this match with higher odds than 50/50)

The same goes with X3 if I win when he loses to the first click, then naturally, if 2nd, then I win to a 60/40, if 3rd, then I win to a 70/30 

The only time an X2 does make since if I am on the 3rd chamber, so I do X2 to corner the opponent on the last bullet, so this way it makes sense to be used. 

But other than that, I never did and will never do x2 and x3 

Scooper54 [2594546]

bogie has said somewhere each shot is individually calculated at 50/50. So is this conflicting info between staff?

TheALFA [2869953]

This is exactly what I meant 

What I mean by each shoot is an individual roll is answering to some people think that the deadly shoot is pre determined as soon as the match start 

But by it rolling each shoot make it same odd every shoot except the last shoot 

 

The reason the odds get shifted when a player uses x2 or x3 is that he risks rolling that 0.1666R 2 or 3 times causing for example for player 1 to trigger 4 of the 6 

That means he risked more

pawl [1821105]

I may be wrong (and have definitely missed something if so) but if that were the case then ~50% of all games would end on the first chamber (and ~25% on the second, ~12.5% on the third...) and the RR stats page shows that they're reasonably evenly distributed across all chambers, which would support the maths that I posted above.

 

Again though, there's every chance I'm wrong! 

TheALFA [2869953]

this was a long depated topic in forums we might both be wrong 

but this is my chumbers data over 23k matches 


idk if that help xd its not clear to me 
but as i understand is that half of the matches ended in the first 2 shots 

TheALFA [2869953]

bro is wasting my mc 

He does not have the nerve to place a bounty without anon

 

02:52:26 - 02/04/26 Someone anonymously placed 3x $200,000 bounties on you

 

15:57:59 - 30/03/26 Someone anonymously placed 1x $22 bounties on you : think he is the new RRgod

23:47:06 - 02/04/26 Someone  has placed a bounty on you with a reward of $100,00,0 and the reason: bro is NOT RRGOD

pawl [1821105]

That's pretty close to where we would expect them to be, yeah.

think if that graph as simply being "did the game end on this chamber?"

C1 is 1/6 chance of ending, 5/6 (83.333%) of not.

C2 is a 4/5 (80%) chance of not.

C3 is 3/4 (75%) chance of not. 

 

There's some minor inaccuracies (see the yellow text at the bottom) that would explain the C6 figure of 1.75% when it should be zero, but it's all about in line with where they should be. 

TheALFA [2869953]

Yes 
The C6 is not 0 due to some people x2 or x3 at last 2 or 3 C forcing there self to lose I guess

 

its correct that the closer to C6 u r the lower the chances but its so for both players so that evens it I think 

 

but what am interested in really is the following : does the rng gets affected beaded on ur opponent or not as we both have our rng so how this might work 

for example there is few players if they join my matches I know already it is a loss and 90% of the times I was correct and lost 

pawl [1821105]

C6 should still be 0%, as the game always ends on that chamber. I think the variance is simply because of acts of courage/fast shoot scripts confusing the way t.r reads the data.

 

And as to whether personal rng, the rumoured 'luck stat', or any other factors influence the rng of the individual rolls, I don't think that's a question that we're ever likely to get a dev answer to. 

TheALFA [2869953]

True as when an act of courage is triggered it is still that player turn when he force the loss so in my data it should still be 0 

 

As for why it is showing wrong data those shouldn't effect it not the fast shoot nor the act of courage as in logs there is a log for each shoot and its result which should show exactly how each match went 

 

Am planning to add the chamber analysis to my script soon as now it has backup feature and ur data will be saved in ur sheet 

 

U r correct regarding the ring stuff as this will gives advantage if it got revealed 

TheALFA [2869953]

Day 13 done +248m 

played only 115 games 

also I did increase my risk to 40% to try to catch up 

and did a random bet 100m and won it 

so that made me able to end the day as if I played my usual 20% risk and 300 matches 

Pro_eobard [1184733]
You won the game of Russian Roulette against xTrickyx winning the pot of $2,000,000,000
2 HOURS AGO
04:35:33 - 05/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against -Beast winning the pot of $333,955,438
04:17:27 - 05/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against noEpitaph winning the pot of $20,000,000,000
03:48:47 - 05/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Viraj winning the pot of $3,494,861,640
3 HOURS AGO
02:42:53 - 05/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Carl0Gambino winning the pot of $2,000,000,000
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02:02:15 - 05/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against JTFreebz winning the pot of $20,000,000,000
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00:46:41 - 05/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against INFINITY_KING winning the pot of $680,000,000
6 HOURS AGO
00:29:25 - 05/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Hardbasta winning the pot of $200,000,000
7 HOURS AGO
23:29:29 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against lub0 winning the pot of $200,000,000
22:58:58 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against ValenceS winning the pot of $1,000,000,000
9 HOURS AGO
21:34:43 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against RyanGosling winning the pot of $40,000,000
21:19:06 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Edwards winning the pot of $400,000,000
11 HOURS AGO
18:54:37 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against PonasPuikis winning the pot of $10,024,849,428
1 DAY AGO
03:21:39 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Walkman_ winning the pot of $10,000,000,000
02:07:18 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Kalends winning the pot of $2,000,000,000
02:01:40 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against TheBoze winning the pot of $12,000,000,000
01:20:23 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against IronyLegend winning the pot of $400,000,000
01:11:38 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Mob winning the pot of $7,000,000,000
00:56:55 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against ninja_balls winning the pot of $1,000,000,000
00:49:38 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Simon610 winning the pot of $2,000,000
00:47:58 - 04/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Simon610 winning the pot of $2,000,000
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2 DAYS AGO
00:38:40 - 03/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against noEpitaph winning the pot of $20,000,000,000
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3 DAYS AGO
02:09:55 - 02/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against GamblinDegen winning the pot of $4,000,000,000
02:00:18 - 02/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against ninja_balls winning the pot of $2,095,156,220
01:34:50 - 02/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against havokhead winning the pot of $20,000,110
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22:32:51 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against noEpitaph winning the pot of $20,000,000,000
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18:09:49 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against HT-TheRealMafia winning the pot of $500,000,000
17:17:05 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against noEpitaph winning the pot of $3,000,000,000
15:41:03 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Ozi winning the pot of $2,400,000,000
14:32:54 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against MissRobott winning the pot of $600,000,000
14:30:01 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Sexy-Alexis winning the pot of $67,923,552
14:17:40 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Scuba_Steve winning the pot of $1,000,000,000
14:15:33 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against AntonioMontana_ winning the pot of $40,000,000
14:11:48 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against HT-TheRealMafia winning the pot of $200,000,000
13:58:45 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against MissRobott winning the pot of $300,000,000
13:54:11 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against TheBillyBob winning the pot of $2,000,000,000
13:34:59 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against Earwig winning the pot of $100,000,000
13:27:32 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against S0uL13S5 winning the pot of $400,000,000
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13:10:01 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against S0uL13S5 winning the pot of $137,236,032
13:06:21 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against ASTA winning the pot of $10,000,000
13:00:27 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against TheBillyBob winning the pot of $1,000,000,000
12:41:51 - 01/04/26 You won the game of Russian Roulette against DrSlothMD winning the pot of $720,000,000
You lost the game of Russian Roulette against -Beast losing the pot of $400,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
2 HOURS AGO
04:12:27 - 05/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Viraj losing the pot of $6,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
04:08:23 - 05/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against -Beast losing the pot of $2,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
3 HOURS AGO
02:46:51 - 05/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against DammitArcher losing the pot of $2,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
4 HOURS AGO
01:50:58 - 05/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against noEpitaph losing the pot of $4,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
01:40:44 - 05/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against DammitArcher losing the pot of $2,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
5 HOURS AGO
01:34:27 - 05/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Edwards losing the pot of $800,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
01:10:14 - 05/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Slideonqwaz losing the pot of $400,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
7 HOURS AGO
22:57:31 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Poor losing the pot of $200,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 19m
22:54:06 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Hardbasta losing the pot of $200,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
11 HOURS AGO
18:48:43 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against WHOsTheDADDY losing the pot of $3,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
18:47:05 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against WHOsTheDADDY losing the pot of $2,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
1 DAY AGO
02:10:51 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Mob losing the pot of $4,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
01:32:47 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Emperor losing the pot of $10,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
01:29:58 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Mob losing the pot of $2,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
01:24:00 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against IronyLegend losing the pot of $1,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
01:08:07 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Sicario losing the pot of $4,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
01:02:11 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against ninja_balls losing the pot of $400,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
00:50:48 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Mob losing the pot of $400,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
00:48:36 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Simon610 losing the pot of $4,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 20m
00:42:25 - 04/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against cacarotto losing the pot of $400,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
2 DAYS AGO
01:15:08 - 03/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Adarnaz losing the pot of $3,200,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 19m
00:36:19 - 03/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against TheDegenGambler losing the pot of $6,020,799,574 and going to the hospital for 0h 18m
00:34:32 - 03/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against TheDegenGambler losing the pot of $3,291,493,316 and going to the hospital for 0h 19m
22:40:41 - 02/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Adarnaz losing the pot of $4,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
21:22:12 - 02/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Kindly losing the pot of $6,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
3 DAYS AGO
01:40:06 - 02/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against ninja_balls losing the pot of $600,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
18:20:42 - 01/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against AntiScout losing the pot of $4,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
18:13:49 - 01/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against WHOsTheDADDY losing the pot of $3,200,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
18:10:51 - 01/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against HT-TheRealMafia losing the pot of $1,100,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 20m
16:07:45 - 01/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Ozi losing the pot of $1,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 00m
15:03:15 - 01/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against TornToShreds losing the pot of $1,007,768,956 and going to the hospital for 0h 15m
14:06:44 - 01/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against MissRobott losing the pot of $400,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 19m
13:57:12 - 01/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against MissRobott losing the pot of $500,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 20m
13:49:09 - 01/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against MissRobott losing the pot of $600,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 19m
13:48:25 - 01/04/26 You lost the game of Russian Roulette against Adarnaz losing the pot of $1,000,000,000 and going to the hospital for 0h 18m

Mentions: -Beast [4222591] · Adarnaz [3787968] · AntiScout [3597494] · AntonioMontana_ [3258960] · bzimor [2658357] · cacarotto [3392838] · Carl0Gambino [3408465] · Co-dy [3049709] · DammitArcher [2036722] · DrSlothMD [2131253] · DXB_TeRRoR [1603372] · Earwig [657539] · Emperor [3027616] · GamblinDegen [2749058] · Hardbasta [3442270] · havokhead [1021104] · HT-TheRealMafia [3018393] · Husk [2194840] · INFINITY_KING [4035357] · IronyLegend [4100021] · JTFreebz [3240808] · Kalends [2032147] · Kindly [1956699] · lub0 [23126] · MissRobott [3565510] · Mob [2251781] · ninja_balls [3932640] · noEpitaph [4060151] · Ozi [232117] · PonasPuikis [368595] · Poor [1532735] · RyanGosling [4152519] · S0uL13S5 [2737756] · Scuba_Steve [3824904] · Sexy-Alexis [2808985] · Sicario [2230046] · Simon610 [3819432] · Slideonqwaz [3848238] · TheBillyBob [459611] · TheBoze [3636202] · TheDegenGambler [3236769] · TornToShreds [1171057] · ValenceS [3881168] · Walkman_ [3855062] · WHOsTheDADDY [2773849] · xTrickyx [3086584]

TheALFA [2869953]

This is amazing results hope I can reach that point :D

 

Interesting how u where organising ur bets 

Did I just played them randomly or u r following a strategy?

80% increase in 3 days is crazy good 👍