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Advanced OC spawn rates (T7/T8)

Started by Professor_GmbH [2792553] Reporter on in Bugs & Issues.

3 replies · 36 views · thread synced · 3 days ago · View on torn.com
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  • CloudJumper [1636201] · 3 likes ·
    I mean, it does? Have you never rolled two 6s in a row when rolling dice? The spawns average out over a large sample size. You look at 15 entries, I can look at thousands of spawns and can see …
Professor_GmbH [2792553] Reporter · #1

These are our faction's advanced OC spawns (T7 and T8) since the release of the new T7 OC "Window of Opportunity".

Below you can see the breakdown: 
- 10/15 (67%) T7 - Window of Opportunity 
- 3/15 (20%) T7 - Blast from the Past 
- 2/15 (13 %) T8 - Clinical Precision 
- 0/15 (0%) T8 - Break the Bank

T7s being spawned 87% of the time, while T8s only appeared 13% of the time, with one OC completely missing.

 

When looking at the advanced OC spawn rates prior to the release of the new T7 OC, the distribution of all possible spawns was much more even, especially not one OC completely dominating.

The argument that "15 is not a large enough sample size" doesn't hold up because, looking at any 15 consecutive spawns before the release, there was still significantly more variety than seeing the same OC spawn 10 times.

Please adjust the spawn rates so that each OC appears equally often.

IndyCision [2597200] · #2

You literally said the reason for it and wrote "but don't tell me".

 

Whilst annoying, there will be spikes like this - you're lucky if you had never experienced it before - before the new T7 was released I had 10 blast from the past spawns in a row while trying to roll a T8...

CloudJumper [1636201]Staff · #3

The argument that "15 is not a large enough sample size" doesn't hold up because

 

I mean, it does? Have you never rolled two 6s in a row when rolling dice? The spawns average out over a large sample size. You look at 15 entries, I can look at thousands of spawns and can see that the averages are holding up just fine. There's no pity system to guarantee a scenario spawn because you haven't rolled that one in the past 3 tries. These are yesterday's numbers:

 

 

Thanks!

Professor_GmbH [2792553] Reporter · #4

Thanks for confirming that there is no bias towards the new OC. It certainly felt like it, getting the new OC 67% of the time, because right before the release we had more of an average distribution, that changed "out of the blue" with the new release.

I will be happy for those guys, that get Break the Bank 67% of the time to average our spawnrate out 😉

But the "Pity System" that you mentioned sounds like a really good idea!