1. I do not dispute success/fail ratio and success rate cap. I don't see why this has anything to do with the OPs initial inquiry. If you go to jail 1 in 100 or 50 in 100, it doesn't matter for the CE loss of each failure. I was pretty certain all CE loss was %-wise, because I have read lots of threads where people say they spend weeks and months to regain their 45 NB after being jailed on harder crimes. A fixed CE loss would NOT make them spend this time to regain NB. You can search the forums yourself - they observe this: fail crime - goes to jail - spends ages to regain NB, so their "story" is not anecdotal. I do not believe they all lie.
2. Yes. Wollongong says: "Well... having done only arson for a while, and having seen my crime bar drop during that time, I am quite confident that a failed arson does indeed result in a CE-loss."
The only joker here is OCs. If Wollongong participated AND failed an OC crime in the same period, there can be no certainty of CE loss when being hospitalised. I do not believe Wollongong is lying either.
3. The discussion earlier was whether Arson made someone lose their NB JUST when they had got it. Hospitalisation will, when eventually proven, set you back only a small amount of CE, so regaining the NB shouldn't be a problem. If you already have done 50 (or 30? The threshold depends on NB gained and if the hypothesis is right) arsons before your first failure, that shouldn't make you lose your NB.
So, my #1 hypothesis is, like Yaz also mentioned: Arson sets you back a very small amount of CE. Hypothesis #2 is: All crime failures sets you back a certain %, not a fixed numer.
I will come back to this thread the moment I cross the 40 NB threshold. I have ONLY done Arsons after 35 NB, and I will keep track of my OC failures from now on, so to rule out this option. After I get the 40 NB, I'll have to try for the most difficult hospitalising crime possible. I'm afraid I'll succeed in too many before I fail, but I will try to lose my NB that way.
1. It is important for anyone that wants to do testing to see whether hospitalizations from crimes reduces your CE. You'd need to take into account all the variables in order to control for them so that you could do a fairer test. That means you have to take into account all known details (such as the success rate cap) before drawing any conclusions from your results.
It is true that if you are doing a crime for which you don't have optimal CE for, you will get into a cycle of reds losing you CE, then if you kept doing the same crime, you'd lose more and more CE before you realized the problem and dropped to a lower crime. As a result of this though, quite a few people still see ANY 'streak' failures of a crime as them not having enough CE to do that crime as well. That's why it's important to spread information about the success rate cap, so more people are aware, and so that erroneous information is not spread (well until Ched changes the crimes system anyway).
Neither JJ or I are disagreeing with your assertation that a crime fail (that results in jail) loses you a % of your CE, so I'm not sure why you think we are? We just disagree with the assertation that it's been PROVEN that hosp loses you CE, as no sufficient evidence has been presented yet.
2. I'm not saying everyone who presents anecdotal evidence is a liar. I'm saying that no fair tests have been done. You presented someone else giving their anecdotal story and said that is proof? Anecdotes are not evidence.
In the old forums thread I linked to previously in this thread, a poster had started that thread because they claimed they knew they were just about to level up due to a 'streak' of failed warehouse arsons. They had gone to the fortune teller in China and confirmed they were close to level up.
However their anecdotal evidence (and confirmation bias) could not stand up to the testing and solid data that had been accrued regarding warehouse arson & the success rate cap by other players. They couldn't answer and their anecdote was not accepted.
3. "Hospitalisation will, when eventually proven, set you back only a small amount of CE."
Firstly, this is confirmation bias. You already believe it to be true, although you can't provide evidence for it.
Secondly, you're agreeing with me that it isn't proven. So when you said evidence had 'been presented' (whereas anecdotes have only been presented) you were incorrect?
If you lose a % of your CE when you fail a crime, this is not entirely based on your NB size. NB is only a rough guide, especially when you get a 45. I am (was?) a super buster. I have a HUGE amount of CE stacked on TOP of my 45. So when I lose a % due a crime fail, the actual amount of CE I lose is MUCH higher than, say, someone with a relatively new 45.
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I look forward to seeing the results of your test! Anyone who knows my interest in crimes & OC's in this game, is that I'm all about evidence, and I do not mind being proven wrong!
Thanks for taking the time to type all that up. Please do keep us all updated!
I stopped busting when I reached 10,000. You should know I never really cared about my nervebar or PAs. The best crime that I can think of would be assassination, either mob boss or target. no jails and a higher failure rate than arsons.
I have to wonder though... the people claiming to lose their nervebars from arson failures, were you doing city hall? Because it goes against everything everyone has ever thought, experienced, and proven about arson warehouse being good for your nervebars.
But I think I am losing some CE. Initially I was able to do 2 busts(both around lvl 5-7 with jail time around 1-2 hrs) in a day. But since I have failed those 5-6 Arsons I can do only 1 bust a day. Though I will confirm this after 3-4 trials regarding the bust.
It might be better to do only crimes (or rather just one specific crime) for a while if you're not sure why you seem to be losing CE. If you are doing many things simultaneously it gets even harder to know what's going on.