Safe crimes?

I've taken a glance through the guides and tutorials forum, but couldn't find any that specifically answer my question. If someone could point me to one, I'd certainly appreciate it.

What I'm looking for is some information about when certain crimes are considered 'safe' to hit based on your current NNB or crime experience bonuses. I don't mean just what crimes in each category are considered safest, but when other crimes in that category reach the point that they could be considered safe.

For instance, my default shoplifting crime is the jacket in the clothes shop. I'd like to know how the other shoplifting crimes measure up against it, based on crime experience, value, and success rate. If there's a point where my crime experience is high enough that chocolate bars from the candy store would be 'safe,' then I'd probably want to do those instead.

All the others have a chance of jail except the Jackets, Likewise all the other "safe crimes" stealth virus, steal parked car, warehous arson and murder mob boss can still fail but have no jail.

The crimes that aren't considered safe are never safe, no matter what your CE is. With a NNB of 40 you will still get jailed sometimes stealing chocolate and lose CE.

Yes you can be a criminal mastermind and kidnap mayors, get away with assassinating various mob bosses etc and then you feel a bit peckish and decide to shoplift that one chocolate bar and the next moment you are in the slammer.

when certain crimes are considered 'safe' to hit based on your current NNB or crime experience bonuses.

~~~ besides jackets, all 'safe' crimes will only give you green successes, blue fails, or red hospitals but will NEVER send you to jail. your current NNB will determine how often you get a success, the math has been done at some point to give a general idea on when you want to start certain safe crimes. you start some 'safe crimes' with a higher NNB because doing it before a certain point you end up getting less crime exp in the long run with all the fails.

I don't mean just what crimes in each category are considered safest, but when other crimes in that category reach the point that they could be considered safe...... I'd like to know how the other shoplifting crimes measure up against it, based on crime experience, value, and success rate. If there's a point where my crime experience is high enough that chocolate bars from the candy store would be 'safe,' then I'd probably want to do those instead.

~~~ i can tell you that it will be hard to get this kind of data, as a fail will take a % of your crime exp away rather than a fixed amount, because no one will want to throw weeks-months of crime exp away to see if they can get away with stealing bon bons. there hasnt been too much research done into other crimes as there is no need to.

i dont know the numbers but that doesnt matter, say stealing bon bons has a 1/1000 chance to jail you and some how jails you exactly every 1000th time you do it, and if you get jailed you'll lose 1% of your crime exp. the first time youre jailed you have 999 successes of crime exp, lose your 1% (9.9 or 10) its like having 989 successes crime exp.
your 2nd time = 989 + 999 = 1988 ---> 1988 - 1% (19.88 or 20) = 1968
your 3rd time = 1968 + 999 = 2967 ---> 2967 - 1% (29.67 or 30) = 2937

eventually you get to a point where losing your 1% is ~the same as those 999 successful crimes and you make no progress, thats why people stick to safe crimes because anything passed that breaking even point is a loss, and to my knowledge that breaking even point is somewhere around 25-35NNB.

the end goal for crimes, right now at least, is to get on a PA team and make a bit of extra cash. along the way to getting to a PA level, people will chase the crime merits. *Edit: if there werent any crime merits then people would only do warehouse arsons as you dont make a whole lot of cash from doing crimes.*

this is all a consensus, there is no right way to play torn, if you want to steal bon bons, then by all means you should. and since there isnt a lot of data on other crimes outside the realm of "safe" so make sure you keep track of all your info and share it with others. do it for the future younglings who will be in the shoes you are wearing now.

*Edit: i think if there were a point where crimes that arent safe become safe, it would be far out of just about every ones reach still but i'm pretty sure that most crimes cap at a fixed fail rate after a certain point.