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RR not random?

Started by Asbestos [2605613] on in Gambling.

17 replies · 492 views · thread synced · 5 days ago · View on torn.com
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Asbestos [2605613]
I’ve been doing some informal testing which leads me to believe that RR is not completely random. I have been doing some tests and I think I’m able to reproduce scenarios which almost always result in a loss for the joiner. I assume they might be there to keep crazy things from happening to the economy.

Has anyone else seen any trends which deviate wildly from normalized averages?

I know this is the stuff of tin foil hats. Gambling is always a game of chance and I fully acknowledge that. Crazy losing or winning streaks are completely possible even with 50:50 odds. That said, being able to force a scenario not only in terms of end result, but also timing seems off to me.


Have you see anything that goes beyond superstition and gambling fallacies? Can you reproduce trends?
Qfiffle [2557282] Committee Committee
If you have a reproducible way to win at RR more than 50% of the time, you should be able to print money. If you can reproduce scenarios where the joiner usually loses, that's the same as being able to force a win for you as the setter-upper. Or if it's a timing thing in terms of the joiner losing, you could just time your own joins so that they don't fit that scenario. Either way, you could be making billions off this, but your NW doesn't seem to show it.

(And if it's a bug, you should probably report it).
BlankStar [1871539]
I played rr a very long time ago I only joined people at this time and sadly lost quite a bit l, a couple weeks ago I started rr again seeing people make billions off of one game, and slowly but surely I got hit with the bug.I bet 20mil and the first guy who joins instantly shoots himself in the foot I was hooked.

This is where I put my tinfoil hat on,
I started developing strategies that I thought were helping me, double down if they don't blow Thier foot off on the first shot, don't do certain things well playing, I had to be around certain people because they gave me luck couldn't have more than one tab open, yada yada yada. But there's a couple things I thought helped me.

Obviously like you said never join games, this just forces you to have that crucial first shot, which could make or break the game. The problem with starting a game is you will always be on the last shot. So my general gameplay would be, let them join , if they don't lose straight away I ususlly double shoot in order to get that last bullet out the way, from there it was just hoping and praying. I have no concrete evidence but they would usually lose on the first third fourth or that last bullet, like I said no concret evidence but I won enough to still be mugged to this day, and I haven't played rr in about 2 weeks. I also started thinking about that skull in the chamber, obviously it represents where you think the bullet may be. So I started to think what if the opposite bullet to that had to be a sure bet that it was safe, but very rarely and unfortusnlty, it was the bullet. I then thought about what if it lands in a specific place does that change the position no after a few tests of landing in the same place it was always different, I couldn't get anymore testing in because of the mugging.
Asbestos [2605613]
This reply makes some seriously invalid assumptions based on my purposely vague description. In fact, it’s not the same at all. The setter upper wouldn’t be able to force the win. You’re applying inverses to non-equivalencies.


I don’t think it’s a bug. I suspect more that it is a mechanism working as intended.
Qfiffle [2557282] Committee Committee
Well at the very least if you think there's something that causes joiners to lose "almost all of the time" in certain conditions, even if those conditions can only arise naturally, and there's no corresponding thing for the creator of the game, just by never being the joiner, you can avoid that, and the joiner will occasionally experience it, which is enough to tip the odds past 50/50 in your favour.
Qfiffle [2557282] Committee Committee
Apologies, that wasn't intended to be patronizing. I'm honestly curious about how you can have a reproducible scenario where the joiner almost always loses in certain conditions and not be able to make money from it, if only by avoiding ever being the joiner. I understand you don't want to share the specifics but is there any information you can give to shed light on how this is the case? The only thing I can think of off-hand is that the conditions arise so rarely that the natural variation of win/loss rates outweigh it too much to make money except over near-infinite numbers of games. But then I can't really see how you'd have noticed such a tiny effect. But I'm sure there's also stuff I haven't thought of: just hoping you might explain some more.
xCoMmUnIsT [376973]
This thread is funny as hell guys. Keep going I need something to read on the pot. Tell me more conspiracy theories?!?
BlankStar [1871539]
I don't know if it's lag or what not but does anyone else notice that people wait for about 15 seconds before pressing shoot? I always thought this was a Superstition that people were worried about, like the bullet would move if they waited xD