RW Cache Opening Data

Hello everyone, I'd like to share my personal cache opening data with the community and show you some not cool graphs

I've started opening caches roughly 4 months ago, and opened quite a few ever since.

Here's the breakout

Small Arms Cache
Yellow : 140
Orange : 17
Red : 1
Total : 158

Melee Cache

Yellow : 156
Orange : 14
Red : 1
Total : 171

Medium Arms Cache

Yellow : 17
Total : 17

Armor Cache

Yellow : 12
Orange : 1
Total : 13

Total Caches Overall : 359.

I know this isn't much compared to the Big G's, but still it was a nice experience. I thought at first caches could be profitable as I hit few good oranges when I first started, hence I fell in love with the excitement and kept going.

Over total 359 caches, I happened to find 1 Double Red (Achilles/Cupid unfortunately), 1 Red, 3 Double Orange and 29 Oranges, and I must say, I'm not satisfied with the results. As rng stated at 1:10:89 for red:orange:yellow quality, I'm currently missing 1 red and 3 oranges.

I also noticed, some weapons are actually rarer than the others and doesn't have equal odds to be pulled.
That gap below mp40 and P90 is a good example for that.

Here are some nice charts for you to enjoy:

Small Arms Distribution
[image: i.imgur.com]
As you see here, over a total of 158 caches, I only found 4 BT MP9s and 5 Qsz-92, which considered to be best bases on small arms caches. 9/158 good hits roughly estimates to 5.7% So I had 5.7% chance to pull a good base, and I know my sample size is not that big, but still, this doesn't give a good impression in my opinion. On the other hand, I found 11 P90s, more than BTs and Qsz combined.

Melee Distribution
[image: i.imgur.com]
With a total 171 caches, melees look more balanced than the small arms to be honest. Axe, Cricket Bat and Knuckle Dusters are running the top 3, followed by almost an even distribution except Frying Pan, Leather Bullwhip, Spear and Claymore Sword. But on my recent pulls from the last 2 days, I've hit many japanese swords, so this chart just got evened out recently.
And honestly, I love the melee caches most, there are several great bases, almost all japanese swords, dbks, metal nuns, macana, etc. Unlike the 2 good bases in small, there's much more profit chance.

Medium Arms Distribution
[image: i.imgur.com]

I don't have a good dataset on this one, only opened 17 just to stay away from smalls/melees a bit every once in a while, except the jackhammer it looks like i almost got 1-2 for each weapon and non on some. I like this one so far.

Armor Distribution
[image: i.imgur.com]

Just like Medium Arms, I only have a few here, but I must say, I'm very disappointed with the outcome ratios. These are 400m a piece caches, and 90% of the stuff coming out, is not worth it, you should either hit an Assault Body or any other orange/red tier pieces in order to make some profit. If I didn't hit a vanguard respirator, I would be down 5billion on this caches alone, even with such a small sample size. This is some big boy's stuff to be messed with and I'm not there yet :P

Bonus Distribution
[image: i.imgur.com]

This chart is combined for all small/melee/medium caches, and some of the bonuses can be pulled on different type of caches, so it's not an accurate look, but still, for example over 171 melee caches, I never hit a backstab. Achilles Cupid, Roshambo and Throttle has combined 40 pulls, yes you heard it right, means 40 times I lost 80% of my spendings.Which means I get back 8 caches worth of money out of it, easily lost 32 caches at around 150m/piece. That's around 4.8billion, and this lost is doesn't include other items that went under the cache value. Given that I have only 359 caches opened, that is a certain loss at 1/9 rates.

You can take a look at melee only bonuses here, such as plunders, bloodlusts, double edged, parry and others to see what you can except from 171 caches overall. I think I broke even or made a slight profit with melees so far.

Conclusion

Do you wanna have fun in this game and spend your hard earned pixel money by opening caches? Go ahead and have all the luck, you can either build up some anger issues or feel the excitement when you hit a red weapon!

Do you wanna make profits from the caches? Better put your money in RR instead of here, at least you'll have 50% chance to double it.

It all depends on your goal in Torn, if you just wanna have fun and feel the rush, it's a nice feature. If you wanna build up a good account, opening caches is a terrible idea, not until you get to a point at least.

Thanks for listening my Ted Talk!

This is what I thought when I read ‘’Metal Nuns’’
[image: i.imgur.com]


Opening caches are obviously a very risky business but you don’t really see your actual odds until these posts crop up, and the data is very interesting to see. I’ve opened 2 small arms and a melee and lost money all 3 times. Overall, would you say you’ve broken even or maybe profited?

Are these weapons all for sale or all been sold?

I definetely lost tons of cash unfortunately-as expected. I’d recommend not to try them unless you just wanna have fun and feel the rush.

"A Few"

At the start of Cache. Those who gambled big and opened a lot of them, I can say most of them made their pot of gold from that activity.

Would you think tht is the case today, given the cache prices and weapon prices? Like if you suddenly have a windfall of 50bil in your lap, would you spend all of it opening cache and gamble you will hit the jackpot? Buy 250 Melee Cache..... And hope for 2 Astounding Reds.

Unfortunately I missed the start of caches, Im only around 11months in this game, however if I happened to find 50b, yes I would spend it all in caches, I just like the excitement everytime i click “Yes” on them. Then I’m like oh no… But still, nothing beats the feeling when you hit a nice orange/red. Or even yellow sometimes!

Geez, scamming play- Sorry, running totally legit casinos sure has been good to you.

How tf did you afford this?

I had player-run casino games in the f/g forums for 5 months. Pretty much built my nw along with trading rw gears.

Great data and presentation of the data.
Big ups!

Long way to say I lost money

A guy with an age of only 55 got inspired by this post, opened a medium arms cache and hit a 39weaken 17powerfuk double orange ak47. That thing is worth billions!


Then I remember getting a great naval plunder within my first 5-10 caches when I started.

Also one of my friends got a 13revit btmp9 and a 32 warlord mp5 when she started opening caches, within the first 10 caches!

This leads me to think, caches give you a freaking hit on your first tries to get you addicted and lose your nw over it with time, no way this is all RNG when different people pull great stuff right away when they start to open caches!

Love the charts and data, and as always the data reinforces my statement of not opening any kinds of packs or caches, always sell them. People claiming any significant profits are most likely victims of survivors bias.

Also, sorry to hear you lost so much money for nothing. #chedded.

Is there a script to pull this data?

Have opened 3-4000 caches but no idea what the ratios have been. Bunkered a TON of things I couldn't be arsed selling too, including reds hahaha.

Scofield has a script that logs your cache openings and exports them in an excel file

click here for his script

After installing the script go to this page here

Go until the very end of the page and click expand whenever you see xx similar on your screen, when all the logs are expanded export them, send me the file through discord or however you feel suitable, normally scofield has a script to run through that excel and get the ratios, but I couldn’t contact him when I was making this thread, so I created my own script to run through that file.

Then I’ll be happy to share the results with you.

I'm sorry but I can't help lolling at your double red Achilles/Cupid. That's just a cruel drop.