Your loss, not mine [LIVE SUPPLY PACK VALUE]

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Since last week Torn has disclosed all the odds for caches. This shows which items drop from a cache and what the chances of such a drop are.

So, I used the Torn API and did some quick maths...

A cache is profitable when the total market value of the expected items in the cache is higher than the current market value of the cache. Simple as that. Well, here are the results at the time of writing:

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PS: I didn't add the RW caches, as there is too much variation in price outcome, it is just a hot mess.

Of course, nothing is static on the Torn market, so in the next post I share the full graph which updates automatically. You can return to this post at any time in the future and see the live situation based on updated market values. Traders and gamblers, enjoy!

Discussion topics:

Do you expect the cache values to change now we can calculate their value?

Or will gamblers be gamblers and keep buying any cache despite their overall loss?

Will you keep opening drug packs?

When I ran the numbers yesterday they were at break-even, like I would expect for a 50/50% cache. Today a significant loss.

Would Torn be forced to include the chances for things like slots and Leslie's wheel too? 

What is the biggest surprise of this data?

Personally, I didn't expect that all the clothing caches would be overpriced this much.

Updated hourly:

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Christmas Crackers give a 50% chance to give items to you, in the other case the recipient receives them. So I presented the value at 50%. I know not all people will agree, but now you know.

Anniversary Present is a guaranteed loss at current prices and probably more a collectible by itself than a cache that should be opened. Excluded for that reason, but if you want to know: current loss $260m.

If an item doesn't have a market value, my script uses 80% of the lowest price on the item market.

Sshhh!  You're not supposed to give away the infinite money glitches....

Didn't we already know the odds of armors?

"Or will gamblers be gamblers and keep buying any cache despite their overall loss?"

^This one.

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Odds of items also tell us fuck all without telling us how quality, specials, and %s on them are rolled.

Coming in "clutch"

Does this include market fees or is this the price you're not actually receiving when you sell the items?

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i did the same thing for armor caches lmao

Market value as shown by Torn.

So, basically the weird mix between inflated item market prices incl. fees and the lower bazaar prices. The profit/loss would be roughly the same in either case: buy more expensive on the item market and sell more expensive there too, or buy and sell cheaper on bazaars.

So it shows armor drop rate but not rarity for orange or red and double perks, nor perk drop rate? Seems a bit biased. 

Also, where does it show that odds increase if you’re a blue name or a newbie? Cos I’d bet (lol) that it does. 

I could be wrong, but if they have to publish the drop rates for legal reasons (and they're not going beyond what's actually required in order to give themselves a margin of legal safety) then I would think having undisclosed mechanics that affect the published rates wouldn't be legal. 

Yeah, RW caches still are "black box" gambling. No way to get a reasonable expected value (range) for those.

Also, where does it show that odds increase if you’re a blue name or a newbie?

Blue names mostly seem to be useful in reducing federal jail time :)

I am really curious indeed if new players have better chances in the casino, maybe similar like the higher chance of getting a book (confirmed now) as a subscriber reward.

I know that in my early days I won a DP and business class ticket on the Wheels, but those still are one-time events till now.

Thanks for putting this together!

I’m not sure if it’s possible but I would think that if the last 50-100 weekly lottery winners were looked at, a high % of them would be sub 100 days old at the time of their win. 

Going further, Torn stats records date and name of whoever pulled a RW weapon. If there’s an index to be consulted I would guess a high % of newbs / blue names pulled them. 

And the slots jackpot alone, I seem to recall the jackpot being retracted twice because the newbie that won was a multi player. 

I realize both statements I made for blue names and newbs having a higher RNG luck is quite broad but without actual data that likely won’t be admin approved, we’ll never know. 

What are the odds for me pulling a red 123% deadeye 13% expose 320 qual armalite from my next medium cache

I'm not saying this is the case, but noobs/blue names may be more likely to open caches or play the lotto/slots and with higher values - and there would naturally be a higher number of them winning. 

Blue names obviously have more money to spend and (making an assumption and generalisation here) noobs don't yet care about or know to make smarter financial decisions. 

Correlation doesn't always equal causation. Once again, pure speculation on my part

edit:spelling

I think you have to try today

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People are so weird about noobs winning lotteries and slots. There are more noobs than vets. It would be weird if old-heads were always winning. If there were 2 noobs for every vet, you would expect noobs to win 2 out of 3 times.