Before I start:
1.) I do not have the education done which increases crime success rate. It may help to reduce the failed (blue) attempts, I'm not sure if it changes anything for how many times you get jailed.
2.) I have to thank everyone who busted me out (but dont celebrate too early, I'm not yet done with my drug crimes. I'm at 9828 drug crimes done (at the time I started writing this), so 172 more to go. And I probably forget to update this thread when I'm truly done).
3.) I refuse to keep looking at the activity log and see how far it can look back to double check my data, as that takes too much time (maybe a suggestion to add the option to open it in a seperate page with easier search functions).
4.) I dont intend to change the mindset of those pussies refusing to do drug crimes because the 'high jail rate' hurts their crime xp, if your mindset does change, good luck. But is it really high jail rate? Time to find out.
I had to look at numerous screenshots and even with that there was still some data missing, as I changed what I did over time. With some deductions and calculations added, as well as making good use of the personal stats graph, I came to something which cant be far from the truth.
It started as one of those things I like(d) to complete and have it done (and it's almost done).
Theory:
My theory is that as you do crimes you get crime xp, but the more crime xp you have the more crime xp you will loose when you get jailed (you loose a % crime xp). So if you have 60 nnb and you get jailed you loose more crime xp than when you are at 30 nnb.
Easy to calculate (unlikely to be the true values):
At 30 nnb you have 1.000 crime xp.
At 60 nnb you have 1.000.000 crime xp.
Jailed means a 1% loss in crime xp.
At 30 nnb with 1.000 crime xp the 1% loss equals a loss of 10 crime xp.
At 60 nnb with 1.000.000 crime xp the 1% loss equals a loss of 10.000 crime xp.
So better do high risk crimes (like drug crimes) when not yet at 60 nnb.
That was when I started doing drug crimes. I'm not sure that is correct, but with that theory I kept myself going.
From 13may2019 until today 15sept2020 (or yesterday by the time I have this thread posted) I did 9828 drug crimes.
With all my data together I made a list, from that list I created the following graph:
[image: profileimages.torn.com]
As you can see I didn't start at 0 times jailed. It was at 51 (you can see that in my personal stats). As of now at 9828 drug crimes done I have been jailed 575 times. This means that by doing 9828 drug crimes I was jailed 524 times. For some reason this wasnt what I thought it was, but numbers dont lie.
Unfortunately, I didn't write down the number of failed but not jailed results (this really bothers me, but whatever. I cannot turn back time). So I cannot give an exact number of times I clicked the drug crime, nor did I do nerve refills consistently (91 nerve refills done in total), and thus am unable to provide a chance on succesful doing drug crimes.
Conclusion:
Success: 9828 times
failed: ? times
Jailed: 524 times
However, if (speculation):
1.) Number of successes equals number of failed, then 9828 failed. 9828 success + 9828 failed + 524 jailed = 20.180 times that I clicked the drug crime. That means 20.180 * 8 nerve = 161.440 nerve used.
2.) Number of successes is twice the number of failed, then 4914 failed. 9828 success + 4914 failed + 524 jailed = 15.266 times that I clicked the drug crime. That means 15.266 * 8 nerve = 122.128 nerve used.
Whatever, it's just an indication, but is 524 times jailed compared to 9828 success really such a problem? It's almost 1 out of 20 drug crimes (excluding the failed attempts).
If you use my theory, that you loose 1% crimes xp each time you get jailed, then this would have cost me 5.240 crime xp at 30 nnb. However, at 60 nnb this would have cost me 5.240.000 crime xp. But even if it is just 0,05% loss in crime xp (or any other factor), then it's still better do drug crimes early on.
And again: I do not have completed the Bachelor of Psychological Sciences course yet, so if you have that and use more nerve refills, less candy and more expensive alcohol items or more cannabis, or all those things, then you can do the drug crimes much faster and with more sucess compared to me.
Of course, the fabled crimes2.0 (?) may change this all. But are you the crybaby that waits for that, or are you the tough one and go for the drug crimes now? Whatever your choice is, good luck!
