1. Chedburn or any other coding admin, what are the probable odds of someone, anyone actually hitting that jackpot? Sucks when I can get 3 Radioactives and 3 Torns to line up but they are not in the middle to trigger.
Hobbie [443763]There's been at least 100 winners of the jackpot (Since June 2012):http://www.torn.com/loader.php?sid=viewJackpotWinners
You can divide the winners by the total spins to check the odds of the jackpot. Divide that by 75 (tokens) and you got how many days it takes on average (pretty sure it's ridiculously high as in well beyond 10 years) Now that there's over 100 I'm not sure if you can get an accurate measurement now though. Edit: From my guide when I did do the calculations (before 100+ were won)
"Slots: The odds are pretty terrible and you generally shouldn't bet more than $10, but it is a great way for any gambler or non gambler to spend their tokens on $10 spins as they have just as much chance of hitting the jackpot as anyone else, and in this case with $10 bets the odds ARE in your favor! On average I'd say it'd take a player about 38.6 years spinning 75 tokens a day before hitting a jackpot, but hey, someones gotta win, and again the odds are heavily in your favor with $10 bets, it'll on average cost about 141k to win a jackpot! They are however very much against you with higher bets. I believe 10% of every bet goes into the jackpot. "
Not that I expect to win a jackpot per week or anything like that, but it does seem a bitsuspicious that during any given 75 spins, you canjust aboutexpect to get 3 TORNs on either the top or bottom rows. Almost as if its been predetermined.
How is it that such a rare occurrence on a winning line could be such a common occurrence on a losing line ? Its not a coincidence, I guarantee that much.
TIGRRRRRR [132684]Not that I expect to win a jackpot per week or anything like that, but it does seem a bitsuspicious that during any given 75 spins, you canjust aboutexpect to get 3 TORNs on either the top or bottom rows. Almost as if its been predetermined.
How is it that such a rare occurrence on a winning line could be such a common occurrence on a losing line ? Its not a coincidence, I guarantee that much.
Like real life slot machines, even those with mechanical wheels, the result is determined as soon as you hit the button. The rolling wheels are just for show. The "near misses" are just designed to make you spend more money.
they have just as much chance of hitting the jackpot as anyone else
I seem to recall the developer posting originally when it came out that $10 gives you a chance but not the same chance as $10M. Has that been revised?
The devs never posted that, there was actually a giant debate about it, while everyone was sitting there arguing I mailed the person that developed slots and asked, he said all bet sizes have an equal chance at the jackpot. So unless that changed with RESPO then it's still the case.
they have just as much chance of hitting the jackpot as anyone else
I seem to recall the developer posting originally when it came out that $10 gives you a chance but not the same chance as $10M. Has that been revised?
The devs never posted that, there was actually a giant debate about it, while everyone was sitting there arguing I mailed the person that developed slots and asked, he said all bet sizes have an equal chance at the jackpot. So unless that changed with RESPO then it's still the case.
They did, it may not have been what they meant. Irrelevant if you received a subsequent definitive answer. Good to know.
Assuming only exactly 100 jackpot winners, my conclusion is that it will take approximately 12.235 years to have a 50% chance of winning a jackpot if using 75 tokens per day. 6.2 years if you refill and use 150 :P
disclaimer: results don't take floating point errors into account
Yuno_Lift [121252]Assuming only exactly 100 jackpot winners, my conclusion is that it will take approximately 12.235 years to have a 50% chance of winning a jackpot if using 75 tokens per day. 6.2 years if you refill and use 150 :P
disclaimer: results don't take floating point errors into account
There's been more than 100 jackpot winners, my calculations in the previous post were before it hit 100 but after there were a lot of winners which landed at 38.6 years.
Yuno_Lift [121252]Assuming only exactly 100 jackpot winners, my conclusion is that it will take approximately 12.235 years to have a 50% chance of winning a jackpot if using 75 tokens per day. 6.2 years if you refill and use 150 :P
disclaimer: results don't take floating point errors into account
There's been more than 100 jackpot winners, my calculations in the previous post were before it hit 100 but after there were a lot of winners which landed at 38.6 years.
Yuno_Lift [121252]Assuming only exactly 100 jackpot winners, my conclusion is that it will take approximately 12.235 years to have a 50% chance of winning a jackpot if using 75 tokens per day. 6.2 years if you refill and use 150 :P
disclaimer: results don't take floating point errors into account
There's been more than 100 jackpot winners, my calculations in the previous post were before it hit 100 but after there were a lot of winners which landed at 38.6 years.
I'd like to know how you calculated this.
I believe the use of math was involved.
Seriously it was based on total spins vs jackpot wins....I rhyyymeee! ^_^
Yuno_Lift [121252]Assuming only exactly 100 jackpot winners, my conclusion is that it will take approximately 12.235 years to have a 50% chance of winning a jackpot if using 75 tokens per day. 6.2 years if you refill and use 150 :P
disclaimer: results don't take floating point errors into account
There's been more than 100 jackpot winners, my calculations in the previous post were before it hit 100 but after there were a lot of winners which landed at 38.6 years.
I'd like to know how you calculated this.
I believe the use of math was involved.
Seriously it was based on total spins vs jackpot wins....I rhyyymeee! ^_^
I subtracted the reciprocal of the total spins times 100 from 1 and multiplied the result by itself until it was lower than 0.5
If there are more winners then it should take even less time to hit a jackpot ;)